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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Alec Burleson is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 60%, for a model edge of +12.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:24PM UTC
MLB

Alec Burleson

STL

+12.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -152 (1.66)
+12.9% Edge
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels
Angel Stadium, Anaheim, California · Outdoor
Tue 21 Jul, 2:10AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.2%
Implied Probability
60.2%
Model Edge
+12.9%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases73.2%60.2%1.37+12.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Alec Burleson (STL) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-152)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Cardinals roll into Anaheim, Alec Burleson’s recent form raises eyebrows when considering his total bases line. With a batting average hovering around .215 in his last 15 games, he’s struggled to find consistency at the plate. The Angels’ pitching staff has also been sharp, particularly with their starters limiting opposing hitters to a .230 average. Moreover, the Angels' home advantage isn’t merely a myth; they’ve consistently kept hitters in check with a robust bullpen that can stifle momentum late in games. Burleson’s matchup against the Angels’ right-handed pitchers, who have held lefties like him to a mere .225 average this season, further supports the notion that he might find it tough to clear the 1.5 total bases mark. Given these trends, taking the under feels like a smart play in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
O 0.560%

Alec Burleson MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
O 0.560%

Alec Burleson MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
O 0.560%

Alec Burleson MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -152 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -154 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -256 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs Pending
18 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Runs Scored Pending
18 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Singles Pending

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About This Player

Alec Burleson (STL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alec Burleson is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.9% on this pick. Their next game is St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday 21 July at Angel Stadium, Anaheim. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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