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The latest Bet Better model pick for Adley Rutschman is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +14.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 2:16PM UTC
MLB

Adley Rutschman

BAL

+14.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -154 (1.65)
+14.7% Edge
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts · Outdoor
Mon 20 Jul, 11:10PM
OUT
The Red Sox acquired Rutschman (wrist), Jake Rogers and cash from the Orioles on Monday in exchange for catcher Carlos Narvaez, right-handers Anthony Eyanson and Kyson Witherspoon, outfielder Enddy Azocar and a player to be named later, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
updated Aug 3, 6:53PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
75.3%
Implied Probability
60.6%
Model Edge
+14.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases75.3%—60.6%1.33+14.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Adley Rutschman (BAL) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-154)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Red Sox host the Orioles, all eyes will be on Adley Rutschman, but this might not be his night at the plate. Sure, Rutschman has shown flashes of brilliance, but he faces a tough challenge against a Red Sox pitching staff that’s been on a roll lately. They’ve allowed just a handful of hits over their last few games, and their strikeout rate is climbing—particularly against left-handed batters like Rutschman. Additionally, Rutschman has struggled with consistency in recent outings, often finding himself swinging through tough pitches. With the Boston bullpen lurking, ready to shut the door if he gets on base, the under on 1.5 total bases feels like the smart play. The odds are leaning towards him being contained, and with the stakes high for both teams, it's reasonable to expect him to fall short tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak6L2085%
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.510%

Adley Rutschman MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.540%
O 2.540%
O 3.520%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.7 · hi 2 · lo 1
212

Adley Rutschman MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak6L2085%
O 0.580%
O 1.560%
O 2.550%
O 3.530%
O 4.520%

Adley Rutschman MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.520%

Adley Rutschman MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
67%hit L10
O 0.567%

Adley Rutschman MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 67% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2077%
O 0.570%
O 1.510%

Adley Rutschman MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Jul 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -154 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -182 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -179 ✗ MISS
08 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
07 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Adley Rutschman (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Adley Rutschman is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.7% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox on Monday 20 July at Fenway Park, Boston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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