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The latest Bet Better model pick for Adley Rutschman is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +16.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:09AM UTC
MLB

Adley Rutschman

MLB

+16.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -179 (1.56)
+16.8% Edge
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros
Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas · Indoor
Sat 18 Jul, 12:10AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
80.9%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+16.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases80.9%—64.1%1.24+16.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Adley Rutschman (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-179)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As we gear up for Saturday's showdown between the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles, keep an eye on Adley Rutschman’s total bases. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance this season, the Astros' pitching staff is no joke, particularly with their ace likely taking the mound. Houston’s starters have been stifling, boasting a league-leading WHIP that makes it tough for hitters to find their rhythm. Rutschman, despite his potential, faces a daunting challenge against a pitcher who excels at limiting hard contact. The matchup trends lean heavily against him, as he’s been held to under 1.5 total bases in several of his recent games against top-tier arms. With the Astros' defense also playing at an elite level, expect Rutschman to struggle to make significant noise at the plate. Betting the under on his total bases seems prudent given these dynamics.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Total BasesUpcoming gameU 1.5 -179+16.8% edge
70%hit L10
L2080%

Adley Rutschman MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Current line U 1.5 at -179 (+16.8% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10

Adley Rutschman MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -159 ✓ HIT
07 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -159 ✗ MISS
30 Jun 26 Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -250 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Adley Rutschman is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Adley Rutschman is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.8% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros on Saturday 18 July at Minute Maid Park, Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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