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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 17, 10:10PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Fri 18 Sep 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
85.7%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Tampa Bay Rays -4 Spread +487

The model graded 20 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $587 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 85.7% across 21 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 18 Sep 2026, 11:10PM at Tropicana Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win35.8%
The price says17.0%
Best price+487
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Tampa Bay Rays -4 Long-shot36% chance +487
Spread Lean40% chance —
Spread Lean59% chance —
Spread Long-shot32% chance —
Spread Long-shot28% chance —
Spread High64% chance —
Spread High79% chance —
Spread High88% chance —
Spread High85% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →
Tampa Bay Rays are the model's favourite to beat Boston Red Sox, with a 53% chance to win. Predicted score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.7 – Boston Red Sox 3.7. Kick-off Fri 18 Sep, 11:10PM at Tropicana Field. Best bet: Tampa Bay Rays -4 at +487.
How they've been scoring this season
Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays
Won-lost82-6890-59
Runs scored per game4.44.6
Runs allowed per game3.84.1
On the road / at home44-31 away50-25 at home
Last 5 gamesLLLWWWLWWW
Their games average 8.5 total runs this season.
From the 150 Boston Red Sox and 149 Tampa Bay Rays games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 31 bookmakers compared
Winner
Boston Red Sox2.15+115GTbets
Tampa Bay Rays1.86-1161xBet
Total runs
Over7.52.13+113Kalshi
Under7.51.88-114LowVig

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays odds by bookmaker

31 books · best price in green
BookBoston Red Sox winTampa Bay Rays winTampa Bay Rays -1.5Over 7.5Under 7.5
1xBet2.07+1071.86-1162.68+1682.07+1071.86-116
888sport2.00+1001.80-125—2.05+1051.75-133
BetMGM2.05+1051.80-125—2.00+1001.83-120
Bovada2.01+1011.83-120—2.05+1051.80-125
Courtside2.07+1071.81-1232.82+1822.02+1021.84-119
DraftKings2.05+1051.79-1272.78+1782.00+1001.83-120
ESPN BET2.05+1051.80-1252.75+1752.05+1051.80-125
Fanatics2.10+1101.77-1302.65+1652.00+1001.83-120
FanDuel2.02+1021.83-120—2.04+1041.78-128
Fliff2.05+1051.77-1302.60+1602.00+1001.77-130
Hard Rock Bet2.00+1001.83-1202.70+1702.05+1051.80-125
Kalshi2.13+1131.82-1222.94+1942.13+1131.85-117
PlayUp2.02+1021.80-1252.60+1601.92-1091.85-118
PointsBet2.05+1051.80-1252.75+1752.00+1001.83-120

Since the market opened: Tampa Bay Rays to win opened 1.80, best now 1.86; the over 7.5 opened 2.01, best now 2.13 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 89 of 195 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 17
Justin Wrobleski Over 1.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $110
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Tampa Bay Rays
+1.5
-213
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,348+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Ceddanne Rafaela CFOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Anthony Seigler 2BOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Eli White CFOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut

Probable pitcher

Sonny Gray SP

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Tyler Wells RPOut
  • Garrett Cleavinger RPOut
  • Shane McClanahan SPOut
  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Drew Rasmussen SP
Availability updated Sep 18, 12:05AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 23 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability23 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 18 Sep

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction and Picks, September 18, 2026

On September 18, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-213), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 2 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Tampa Bay Rays Win (-118)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Tampa Bay Rays Win (-118). That is a h2h bet. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.47 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-213)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-213). That is a spreads bet. It was priced at -213 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.69 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Betting angles

3 markets live
MoneylineTampa Bay Rays to win-118
53%model win %
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L52-3

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline vs Boston Red Sox is live and our model makes it 53% (LEAN); L5 record 4-1.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxOver 7.5 +110
8.4proj. runs
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L52-3

Tampa Bay Rays total runs vs Boston Red Sox is live and our model makes it 46% (LONG-SHOT); proj. runs 8.4.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run line+1.5 -213
65%cover %
+1.0proj. margin
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L52-3

Tampa Bay Rays spread vs Boston Red Sox is live and our model makes it 65% (HIGH); proj. margin +1.0.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
3.8runs we expect
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L52-3

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent results

Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W14–4HOUHome
W3–2HOUHome
W3–1HOUHome
L1–3ATLAway
W7–2ATLAway
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–1KCHome
W5–1KCHome
L2–3KCHome
L4–6LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Tampa Bay Rays won 5, Boston Red Sox won 5.

DateTampa Bay RaysBoston Red SoxWinner
Jul 1916Boston Red Sox
Jul 1867Boston Red Sox
Jul 1735Boston Red Sox
Jul 17010Boston Red Sox
Jun 1075Tampa Bay Rays
Jun 943Tampa Bay Rays
Jun 831Tampa Bay Rays
May 1041Tampa Bay Rays
May 802Boston Red Sox
May 784Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s out or in doubt

23 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
Tyler Wells RPOUT
Garrett Cleavinger RPOUT
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Manuel Rodriguez RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Ceddanne Rafaela CFOUT
Tyron Guerrero RPOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Anthony Seigler 2BOUT
Johan Oviedo SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

Our Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays prediction for September 18, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 18, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-213), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 2 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
21
Total Picks
85.7%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
10 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 11 ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays +2 ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays +1 ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -1 ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -3.5 ✗ MISS
10 Jun 26 Moneyline Tampa Bay Rays ✓ HIT
10 Jun 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -2.5 ✗ MISS
10 Jun 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -3 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Rays, or as Rays vs Sox. The next scheduled game is Friday 18 September 2026 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 85.7% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 64 meetings on record
Boston Red Sox 33–31 across the last 64 meetings · these games average 8.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
19 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox6–1Boston Red Sox
18 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox7–6Boston Red Sox
17 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox10–0Boston Red Sox
10 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays7–5Tampa Bay Rays
9 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays4–3Tampa Bay Rays
8 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays3–1Tampa Bay Rays
10 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox1–4Tampa Bay Rays
8 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox2–0Boston Red Sox
7 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox4–8Tampa Bay Rays
20 Mar 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays2–0Tampa Bay Rays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 64 meetings on file.

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