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Model picks & player props
MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 1:40 PM ET
Boston Red Sox
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays and backs Under 0.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $1,380.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Under 0.5 total runs 1st 5 innings
Under 0.5 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
You bet$10 If it wins$138.00Best price+1280
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win8.2%
The price says7.2%

The model graded 70 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $1,380 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 20 Sep 2026, 1:40 PM ET at Tropicana Field.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 0.5 Long-shot8% chance +1280
Total Runs Members only Long-shot14% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot18% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot9% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot7% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only Lean48% chance Members
Batter - RBIs × 4 props Leanup to 43% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 2 props Long-shotup to 33% Members
Pitcher - Outs × 2 props Highup to 62% Members
Batter - Hits × 10 props Leanup to 59% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Long-shotup to 38% Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 3 props Long-shotup to 14% Members
Batter - Doubles × 5 props Long-shotup to 20% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 5 props Leanup to 42% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays last met on Sun 20 Sep 2026: Tampa Bay Rays won 5-1. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
Under
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 66,987+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Garrett Whitlock RPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Mickey Gasper DHOut
  • Romy Gonzalez DHDay-to-day
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Eli White CFOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Shane McClanahan SPOut
  • Jacob Melton LFOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut
Availability updated Oct 10, 1:08AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Cedric Mullins BAL Batter - RBIs
Griffin Jax MIN Pitcher - Strikeouts
Patrick Sandoval Pitcher - Outs
Jorge Mateo TBR Batter - Hits
Griffin Jax MIN Pitcher - Outs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

Tampa Bay Rays total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
4.2runs we expect
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent results

Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3NYYAway
W5–2NYYHome
W1–0NYYHome
L3–7PHIAway
W12–1PHIAway
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–9NYYAway
L0–9NYYAway
L2–6CHCHome
W2–0CHCHome
W4–3CHCHome

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Tampa Bay Rays won 5, Boston Red Sox won 5.

DateTampa Bay RaysBoston Red SoxWinner
Sep 2051Tampa Bay Rays
Sep 1921Tampa Bay Rays
Sep 1824Boston Red Sox
Jul 1916Boston Red Sox
Jul 1867Boston Red Sox
Jul 1735Boston Red Sox
Jul 17010Boston Red Sox
Jun 1075Tampa Bay Rays
Jun 943Tampa Bay Rays
Jun 831Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Jacob Melton LFOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Ryan Pepiot SPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Garrett Whitlock RPOUT
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Tyron Guerrero RPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Mickey Gasper DHOUT
Romy Gonzalez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Eli White CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

Our Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays prediction for September 21, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 21, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Roman Anthony Under 0.5 Walks (-204), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Rays, or as Rays vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Sunday 20 September 2026 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays head-to-head record

Final scores · 67 meetings on record
Tampa Bay Rays 34–33 across the last 67 meetings · these games average 8.0 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 20 Sep 2026, Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays: the Rays won 5-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
20 Sep 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays5–1Tampa Bay Rays
19 Sep 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays2–1Tampa Bay Rays
18 Sep 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays2–4Boston Red Sox
19 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox6–1Boston Red Sox
18 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox7–6Boston Red Sox
17 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox10–0Boston Red Sox
10 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays7–5Tampa Bay Rays
9 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays4–3Tampa Bay Rays
8 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays3–1Tampa Bay Rays
10 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox1–4Tampa Bay Rays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 67 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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