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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ceddanne Rafaela is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits.
On the Batter - Hits market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 73%, for a model edge of +21.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:01AM UTC
MLB

Ceddanne Rafaela

MLB

+21.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Under 1.5 -270 (1.37)
+21.4% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 5:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.4%
Implied Probability
73.0%
Model Edge
+21.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits94.4%—73.0%1.06+21.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Ceddanne Rafaela (NA) Under 1.5 Hits (-270)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Red Sox gear up to face the Rays, all eyes should be on Ceddanne Rafaela. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance, recent trends suggest he might struggle to find success against Tampa Bay’s pitching staff. The Rays have been formidable on the mound, boasting a top-tier rotation that has consistently kept opposing batters in check. Rafaela, despite his talent, has seen a dip in his batting average against right-handed pitchers, which is significant given that the Rays will likely send one of their best righties to the mound. Additionally, he’s averaged less than one hit per game in recent series, failing to clear the 1.5 mark consistently. With Tampa's ability to stifle hitters and Rafaela's recent performance, betting the under on his hits feels like a savvy play in this matchup, especially with the Red Sox's lineup struggling to find rhythm against quality pitching.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

2 markets live
Batter - HitsUpcoming gameU 1.5 -270+21.4% edge
90%hit L10
Streak7L2092%
Game log vs U 1.53 / 6 hit
132210

Ceddanne Rafaela MLB hits: cleared under 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Current line U 1.5 at -270 (+21.4% model edge).

Batter - Total BasesUpcoming gameU 1.5 -164+28.4% edge
90%hit L10
Streak7L2085%
Game log vs U 1.53 / 4 hit
2011

Ceddanne Rafaela MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Current line U 1.5 at -164 (+28.4% model edge).

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2065%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.7 · hi 3 · lo 0
320

Ceddanne Rafaela MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2055%

Ceddanne Rafaela MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -147 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -189 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox Batter - Hits 0.5 Over -263 ✗ MISS
09 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ceddanne Rafaela is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ceddanne Rafaela is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.4% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox on Friday 17 July at Fenway Park, Boston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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