Willson Contreras (STL) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-128)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Red Sox host the Orioles, all eyes will be on Willson Contreras, but backing the under on his total bases feels like the savvy play. The matchup highlights a few key trends: Contreras has recently struggled against left-handed pitching, and with Boston's ace on the mound, he’ll face a tough test.
Over his last few games, the Baltimore catcher has averaged just over one total base, which aligns with the model's prediction of 1.03. Boston’s pitching staff has been particularly effective at keeping opposing hitters off balance, especially at home.
With the Sox's bullpen also tightening in the later innings, it’s likely that Contreras will find it difficult to string together hits. Given all these factors and his current form, betting the under on his total bases seems well-founded as he may find himself limited in this matchup.