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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jarren Duran is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs.
On the Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 57%, for a model edge of +25.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:39AM UTC
MLB

Jarren Duran

BOS

+25.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs Under 1.5 -133 (1.75)
+25.4% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 5:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
82.5%
Implied Probability
57.1%
Model Edge
+25.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs82.5%—57.1%1.21+25.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Jarren Duran (BOS) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-133)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Red Sox gear up to face the Rays, Jarren Duran presents an intriguing betting angle with the 'Under 1.5' for hits, runs, and RBIs. While Duran has shown flashes of brilliance this season, his recent performance against tough pitchers like Tampa's ace has been less than stellar. The Rays' pitching staff is known for its ability to stifle opposing offenses, boasting a solid strikeout rate that often leaves hitters like Duran frustrated at the plate. Moreover, Boston's lineup has been inconsistent lately, with struggles to produce runs against teams with strong bullpens. Duran, while capable, might find himself in a challenging position against a Rays team that has had his number. With a model prediction suggesting he falls short of 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs, it seems wise to lean towards the under in this matchup. The context of the game favors a lower output, making this a savvy play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsUpcoming vs TBRU 1.5 -133+25.4% edge

Jarren Duran MLB hits + runs + rbis vs TBR. Current line U 1.5 at -133 (+25.4% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2055%
O 0.550%

Jarren Duran MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.540%
O 2.540%
O 3.540%

Jarren Duran MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Jarren Duran MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%

Jarren Duran MLB rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2060%
O 0.560%

Jarren Duran MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Jarren Duran MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.510%

Jarren Duran MLB walksseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Batter - Hits 0.5 Under +120 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Walks 2.5 Under -556 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 2.5 Under -303 ✗ MISS
24 Jun 26 Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies Batter - Hits — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jarren Duran (BOS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jarren Duran is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +25.4% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox on Friday 17 July at Fenway Park, Boston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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