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The latest Bet Better model pick for Caleb Durbin is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +7.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 23, 5:42PM UTC
MLB

Caleb Durbin

MLB

+7.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -179 (1.56)
+7.5% Edge
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts · Outdoor
Tue 21 Jul, 11:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.6%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+7.5%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases71.6%—64.1%1.40+7.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games2/6

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AI Analysis

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Caleb Durbin (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-179)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Red Sox prepare to face off against the Orioles, all eyes will be on Caleb Durbin, particularly when it comes to his total bases. While he’s shown flashes of potential, let’s not overlook the challenges he faces in this matchup. The Orioles’ pitching staff has been formidable lately, boasting a solid strikeout rate that could stifle Durbin’s attempts to get on base. Moreover, he’s been mired in a bit of a slump against right-handed pitching, and with the likes of Dean Kremer on the mound for Baltimore, his chances to rack up those total bases diminish. The Red Sox, while explosive, have shown some vulnerability over the past few weeks, particularly in capitalizing on every opportunity. With the betting line set at 1.5, taking the under seems to capture the essence of this matchup perfectly, as the odds tilt toward a quieter night for Durbin.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
67%hit L10
O 0.567%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1 · hi 2 · lo 0
201

Caleb Durbin MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 67% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.517%
O 2.517%
O 3.517%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2 · hi 4 · lo 0
2403014

Caleb Durbin MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.517%

Caleb Durbin MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
67%hit L10
O 0.567%
O 1.533%
O 2.533%
O 3.533%
O 4.533%

Caleb Durbin MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 67% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%
O 1.533%

Caleb Durbin MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%
O 1.533%

Caleb Durbin MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%

Caleb Durbin MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Jul 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -167 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -204 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -200 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs — — — Pending
17 Jul 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Caleb Durbin is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Caleb Durbin is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.5% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox on Tuesday 21 July at Fenway Park, Boston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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