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The latest Bet Better model pick for Christian Yelich is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +6.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
MLB

Christian Yelich

MIL

+6.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -189 (1.53)
+6.3% Edge
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul, 4:15PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.6%
Implied Probability
65.4%
Model Edge
+6.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases71.6%—65.4%1.40+6.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Christian Yelich (MIL) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pirates gear up to face the Brewers, all eyes will be on Christian Yelich, but betting on him to exceed 1.5 total bases might not be the safest play. Yelich has struggled against the Pirates' pitching staff recently, managing just a .220 average in his last ten games against them. The Pirates' bullpen has been surprisingly effective, ranking in the top ten for limiting extra-base hits this season. With their recent form, they’ve held opposing hitters to a paltry .700 OPS over the last month. Moreover, Yelich's performance has been patchy, and with the Pirates' solid defensive alignment, he could find it tough to get those extra bases. With an implied probability of 65.4% favoring the 'Under' and his recent trends, it's wise to lean towards him staying below that 1.5 mark this Sunday. The matchup simply doesn’t favor the Brewers' star tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
67%hit L10
Streak2
O 0.567%

Christian Yelich MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 67% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
67%hit L10
Streak2
O 0.567%

Christian Yelich MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 67% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
67%hit L10
Streak2
O 0.567%

Christian Yelich MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 67% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -189 ✗ MISS
09 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -172 ✗ MISS
06 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -175 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - RBIs — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Christian Yelich (MIL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Christian Yelich is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.3% on this pick. Their next game is Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday 12 July at PNC Park, Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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