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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luis Arraez is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 86%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +20.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:02AM UTC
MLB

Luis Arraez

MIN

+20.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -189 (1.53)
+20.8% Edge
San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners
T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington · Indoor
Sat 18 Jul, 2:10AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
86.2%
Implied Probability
65.4%
Model Edge
+20.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases86.2%—65.4%1.16+20.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Luis Arraez (MIN) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Mariners take on the Giants, one intriguing player to watch is Luis Arraez. While he’s had a remarkable season, batting over .300, recent trends suggest he might struggle against the Giants' pitching. San Francisco’s bullpen has been particularly stingy, holding opponents to a minuscule .220 batting average over the past couple of weeks. Moreover, Arraez has faced left-handed pitching, like what he'll see today, with mixed results. Against lefties, his power numbers dip significantly, and with the Giants sending a crafty southpaw to the mound, expect a tight contest where runs are at a premium. The Mariners’ lineup has also been inconsistent lately, failing to provide ample support. With all this in mind, betting on Arraez to stay under 1.5 total bases feels like a smart play. He may get some hits, but they’re likely to be singles, making it tough to clear that line against a disciplined San Francisco pitching staff.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Total BasesUpcoming gameU 1.5 -189+20.8% edge
100%hit L10
Streak14L2089%

Luis Arraez MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Current line U 1.5 at -189 (+20.8% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%

Luis Arraez MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Luis Arraez MLB hits + runs + rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Luis Arraez MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.517%

Luis Arraez MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%

Luis Arraez MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -227 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -149 ✗ MISS
08 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants Batter - RBIs 1.5 Under -1111 ✓ HIT
08 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants Batter - Singles — — — Pending
01 Jul 26 San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits — — — Pending
01 Jul 26 San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Singles — — — Pending

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About This Player

Luis Arraez (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luis Arraez is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.8% on this pick. Their next game is San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners on Saturday 18 July at T-Mobile Park, Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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