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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
New York Mets

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 21, 12:41PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Boston Red Sox -3 Spread +275

The model graded 20 markets for Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $375 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win36.1%
The price says26.7%
Best price+275
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Boston Red Sox -3 Long-shot36% chance +275
Spread Long-shot28% chance
Moneyline High63% chance
Spread Lean44% chance
Spread Lean40% chance
Spread Long-shot22% chance
Spread Long-shot32% chance
Spread Long-shot25% chance
Spread Lean49% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 0.5 · $100 returned $206

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 840 of 1,690 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 21
Under 4.5
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $483
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Boston Red Sox
+1
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 55,242+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Garrett Whitlock RPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

New York Mets

  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut
Availability updated Aug 19, 3:48PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L54-1Free board8-8

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

New York Mets spread form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2SDHome
L2–5SDHome
W2–1SDHome
W4–3WSHHome
W5–4WSHHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L6–7ARIHome
W9–4ARIHome
W11–1ARIHome
L3–8PITAway
W4–0PITAway

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.8 runs per game (2-3) while Boston Red Sox are at 4.0 (5-0); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 4.4 earned runs per game versus 0.2 for Boston Red Sox.

4.8
New York Mets runs/G
4.0
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsBoston Red Sox
Runs / game4.84.0
Hits / game4.04.8
Home runs / game0.40.8
Walks drawn / game2.21.8
Batter K / game2.03.4
Earned runs allowed / game4.40.2
Pitching K / game4.03.4
Walks allowed / game2.00.4
L5 record2-35-0

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: New York Mets won 0, Boston Red Sox won 3.

DateNew York MetsBoston Red SoxWinner
Jul 1223Boston Red Sox
Jul 1104Boston Red Sox
Jul 1026Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Trevor Story SSOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT
Garrett Whitlock RPOUT
Triston Casas 1BOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
12 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Moneyline Boston Red Sox ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Spread Boston Red Sox +1 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Mets, or as Mets vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Sunday 12 July 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Boston Red Sox 3–0 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets2–3Boston Red Sox
11 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets0–4Boston Red Sox
10 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets2–6Boston Red Sox
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