SYSTEM STATUS: Online WIN: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106) RESULT: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106)
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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
New York Mets

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 12, 6:57AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Boston Red Sox -3 (Spread)
For Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets (MLB), model win probability 36.1%, fair odds 2.77, book price +275, model edge +9.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM at Citi Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Boston Red Sox
-6.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward Under on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward Under
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Betonlineag
on Boston Red Sox
Shop gain & value% 🔒 Pro

Closing line

Snapshot logged
We store the closing number to grade every pick's CLV.
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Ranger Suarez SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Nick Sogard 3BOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut

Probable pitcher

Eduardo Rivera SP

New York Mets

  • Bo Bichette SSDay-to-day
  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Marcus Semien 2BOut
  • Luis Robert Jr. CFOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP
Availability updated Jul 11, 8:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Anthony Seigler Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Caleb Durbin Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Juan Soto WSN Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate
DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.