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Model picks & player props
MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 1:40 PM ET
Boston Red Sox
VS
New York Mets

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 24 markets for Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets and backs Over 0.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $206.

20
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Over 0.5 total runs 1st 1 innings
Over 0.5 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings
You bet$10 If it wins$20.60Best price+106
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win59.5%
The price says48.5%

The model graded 24 markets for Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $206 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 1:40 PM ET at Citi Field.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 Lean60% chance +106
Spread Members only Long-shot36% chance Members
Moneyline Members only High63% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Long-shot23% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean55% chance Members
Batter - Total Bases × 4 props Highup to 81% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Boston Red Sox and New York Mets last met on Sun 12 Jul 2026: Boston Red Sox won 3-2. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings
Over
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Caleb Durbin 3BOut
  • Garrett Whitlock RPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Mickey Gasper DHOut
  • Romy Gonzalez DHDay-to-day
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Eli White CFOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut

New York Mets

  • Jared Young 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut
  • Jonathan Pintaro RPOut
  • Christian Scott SPOut
  • Daniel Duarte RPOut
  • Robert Stock SPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
Availability updated Oct 11, 3:12PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Anthony Seigler Batter - Total Bases
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS Batter - Total Bases
Caleb Durbin Batter - Total Bases
Juan Soto WSN Batter - Total Bases

+ 4 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

New York Mets spread form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
4.6runs we expect
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 24 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 24 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 23 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6WSHAway
W7–1WSHAway
L6–7WSHAway
W7–2TEXAway
L1–3TEXAway
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–9NYYAway
L0–9NYYAway
L2–6CHCHome
W2–0CHCHome
W4–3CHCHome

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.8 runs per game (2-3) while Boston Red Sox are at 4.0 (5-0); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 4.4 earned runs per game versus 0.2 for Boston Red Sox.

4.8
New York Mets runs/G
4.0
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsBoston Red Sox
Runs / game4.84.0
Hits / game4.04.8
Home runs / game0.40.8
Walks drawn / game2.21.8
Batter K / game2.03.4
Earned runs allowed / game4.40.2
Pitching K / game4.03.4
Walks allowed / game2.00.4
L5 record2-35-0

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: New York Mets won 0, Boston Red Sox won 3.

DateNew York MetsBoston Red SoxWinner
Jul 1223Boston Red Sox
Jul 1104Boston Red Sox
Jul 1026Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jared Young 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Jonathan Pintaro RPOUT
Christian Scott SPOUT
Daniel Duarte RPOUT
Robert Stock SPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Caleb Durbin 3BOUT
Garrett Whitlock RPOUT
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Tyron Guerrero RPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Mickey Gasper DHOUT
Romy Gonzalez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Slaten RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets — model preview

Deep dive into New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Caleb Durbin. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox stats and odds.

Caleb Durbin (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Mets gear up to face the Red Sox, all eyes will be on Caleb Durbin, but it might be wise to lean towards the under on his total bases. Despite displaying flashes of promise, Durbin has been struggling to find consistent contact against right-handed pitching, and today, he'll be facing Boston's formidable right-hander, who has been a tough nut to crack. The Red Sox bullpen has also tightened up recently, limiting opponents to a mere .230 batting average in their last few outings. With the Mets facing a potential barrage from Boston’s lineup, it’s likely they’ll play it conservatively, potentially reducing Durbin’s chances of racking up those elusive total bases. Given the statistical trends and the pressure cooker atmosphere of this matchup, banking on Durbin to stay under 1.5 total bases feels like a smart play.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Mets, or as Mets vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Sunday 12 July 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets head-to-head record

Final scores · 14 meetings on record
Boston Red Sox 9–5 across the last 14 meetings · these games average 7.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 12 Jul 2026, Boston Red Sox at New York Mets: the Red Sox won 3-2.

DateGameScoreWinner
12 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets2–3Boston Red Sox
11 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets0–4Boston Red Sox
10 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets2–6Boston Red Sox
21 May 2025New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox1–5New York Mets
20 May 2025New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox2–0Boston Red Sox
19 May 2025New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox3–1Boston Red Sox
13 Mar 2025Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets2–3Boston Red Sox
2 Mar 2025New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox6–4Boston Red Sox
4 Sep 2024Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets8–3New York Mets
3 Sep 2024Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets7–2New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 14 meetings on file.

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