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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
New York Mets

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 1, 9:57AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Boston Red Sox (Moneyline)
For Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets (MLB), model win probability 62.7%, fair odds 1.59, book price -120, model edge +8.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:40PM at Citi Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Boston Red Sox
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Boston Red SoxMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BDay-to-day
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Ranger Suarez SP

New York Mets

  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Kodai Senga SP
Availability updated Aug 1, 3:09AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Anthony Seigler Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Caleb Durbin Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Juan Soto WSN Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2Win rec4-6

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2ATS5-9

New York Mets spread form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
3.3implied team total
L5 RF5.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.8 runs per game (2-3) while Boston Red Sox are at 4.0 (5-0); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 4.4 earned runs per game versus 0.2 for Boston Red Sox.

4.8
New York Mets runs/G
4.0
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsBoston Red Sox
Runs / game4.84.0
Hits / game4.04.8
Home runs / game0.40.8
Walks drawn / game2.21.8
Batter K / game2.03.4
Earned runs allowed / game4.40.2
Pitching K / game4.03.4
Walks allowed / game2.00.4
L5 record2-35-0

Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets — model preview

<p>Deep dive into New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Caleb Durbin. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox stats and odds.</p>

Caleb Durbin (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Mets gear up to face the Red Sox, all eyes will be on Caleb Durbin, but it might be wise to lean towards the under on his total bases. Despite displaying flashes of promise, Durbin has been struggling to find consistent contact against right-handed pitching, and today, he'll be facing Boston's formidable right-hander, who has been a tough nut to crack. The Red Sox bullpen has also tightened up recently, limiting opponents to a mere .230 batting average in their last few outings. With the Mets facing a potential barrage from Boston’s lineup, it’s likely they’ll play it conservatively, potentially reducing Durbin’s chances of racking up those elusive total bases. Given the statistical trends and the pressure cooker atmosphere of this matchup, banking on Durbin to stay under 1.5 total bases feels like a smart play.

Juan Soto (WSN) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Boston Red Sox, all eyes will be on Juan Soto, but there’s a compelling case to consider betting the under on his total bases at 1.5. Soto has faced a tough stretch lately, managing just a handful of hits in his last few games. Against left-handers, his numbers have dipped, and with the Red Sox sending a skilled southpaw to the mound, it could be a challenging day for him at the plate. Moreover, the Mets' pitching staff has been solid against lefties, boasting a low opponent batting average that stifles even the hottest hitters. Considering that Soto’s recent form combined with the pitching matchup may limit his opportunities, betting the under seems like a savvy play. As the game unfolds, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Soto struggle to find gaps, keeping him under that crucial total.

New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox : Boston Red Sox Win (-120)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Red Sox roll into New York to face the Mets, recent form leans heavily in their favor. Boston has been a juggernaut at the plate lately, boasting a lineup that’s consistently finding gaps and driving in runs. Their offense has averaged over five runs a game in the past two weeks, which is a stark contrast to a Mets pitching staff that has struggled to find consistency. On the mound, the Sox's starter has been particularly impressive, owning a WHIP under 1.10 in his last few outings. That kind of command against a Mets lineup that’s been prone to striking out provides a significant advantage. With Boston already holding a solid record on the road, the combination of their offensive surge and a reliable pitcher makes them a compelling play here. Expect the Red Sox to secure the win and leave the Big Apple with a victory in hand.

New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox : Boston Red Sox -2 (+175)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Red Sox roll into Citi Field, they’re on a hot streak that's hard to ignore. Their lineup is firing on all cylinders, averaging a robust 5.7 runs per game this month, showcasing a well-balanced attack that can capitalize on pitching mistakes. Meanwhile, the Mets have struggled to find consistency, particularly against power-hitting teams. With their pitching staff posting a 4.80 ERA recently, they’re ripe for a Red Sox offensive onslaught. The matchup gets even more intriguing when you consider the Red Sox’s recent success on the road, coupled with their ability to win by multiple runs against teams with lower-tier pitching. Given the Mets' tendency to falter late in games, a -2 run line for Boston feels like a savvy play. With the Red Sox hungry for a series win, look for them to assert their dominance and cover that spread comfortably.

New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox : Boston Red Sox -2.5 (+210)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Boston Red Sox roll into New York for this Sunday showdown, they bring a potent offense that’s been firing on all cylinders. Over the last month, they’re averaging a whopping 5.8 runs per game, with the heart of their lineup consistently finding gaps. Meanwhile, the Mets have struggled to contain opposing bats, particularly against right-handers, which bodes well for the Red Sox's formidable righty hitters. Boston's pitching has also stepped up, with their starters posting a solid ERA that suggests they can stifle the Mets’ inconsistent lineup. With the Red Sox gunning for a playoff push and the Mets languishing in mediocrity, the motivation gap is palpable. Betting on Boston to cover the -2.5 run line feels justified; they’re not just looking to win—they aim to send a message. Expect them to dominate and deliver a decisive victory at Citi Field.

New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox : Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+136)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Red Sox roll into New York, they bring with them a slew of recent momentum, winning six out of their last eight games. Their lineup has been electric, with a collective batting average hovering around .280, led by the ever-reliable Rafael Devers. Meanwhile, the Mets have struggled to find their footing, dropping four of their last five, and the cracks in their pitching staff are starting to show. Chris Sale, for Boston, is back to his ace form, boasting a 2.75 ERA over his last five starts. With the Mets' bullpen lagging, it's hard to see them keeping pace with a Red Sox offense that's been scoring runs in bunches. Given the trends and the way these teams are trending, Boston covering the -1.5 run line looks not just plausible, but promising. Don't be surprised if they leave New York with a convincing victory.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
12 Jul 26 Moneyline Boston Red Sox ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -3.5 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -2.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -2 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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