Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions Same Game Multi Tips & Prediction

Josh Ward is one of the most reliable disposal merchants in the competition, and 15.5 is a line that barely tests him. The model projects 23.8 disposals — a full 8.3 above the line — with a 4.3% edge against the implied 88.5% probability baked into the $1.13 price. That projection is well-supported by Ward's L5 home form: he's averaging 23.2 disposals at home, combining 10.8 kicks and 12.4 handballs with a tidy 77.5% efficiency and 309.4 metres gained per game. The hit rate seals the case — he's cleared 15.5 in 11 of his last 12 home games and 17 of his last 18 overall. Even against Brisbane specifically, he's averaging 20 disposals at home. The line looks set for casual punters rather than anyone tracking his actual output. At short odds the edge is modest, but the consistency here is genuinely exceptional.

Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-769)

Impey over 14.5 disposals is a line that looks almost comically short given his home-ground numbers. At the MCG in his last five home games he's averaging 28.4 disposals — 19.8 of those kicks — with 574.8 metres gained and an intercept average of 8.6, which tells you he's not just accumulating garbage touches but genuinely influencing play. The model projects 22.8 disposals against this 14.5 line, a gap of 8.3 that reflects a 4% edge even at the compressed -769 price. His overall hit rate of 18 from 20 over the last 20 games at this line is the kind of consistency that justifies the short odds, and his L5 average against Brisbane specifically sits at 21 — still comfortably clear. The 88.5% implied probability is fair given the data; the model thinks it should be even higher. At 1.13 this is about value confirmation, not a windfall, but the edge is real.