Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Picks: Stat-Based Insights

For this bet to pay off, Hawthorn needs to keep the game close or win by at least three points against the Brisbane Lions. Hawthorn has been solid at home, winning more hit-outs than their opponents and getting it inside the 50 much more often. They also play closely contested games, losing the contested ball count by just a small margin. Brisbane has shown that they can score well, especially in the last quarter, but they have been inconsistent early on. The final margin is likely to be around 2.5 points, which makes this bet a pretty good choice. The biggest risk is how close the teams are, making it tough to predict.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Josh Ward Over 20.5 Disposals (-110)

The odds for Josh Ward to get over 20.5 disposals look solid. Hawthorn has been getting the ball inside 50 a lot more than their opponents lately, which means Ward should have plenty of opportunities to gather possessions. Plus, their rucks have been winning a good amount of hit-outs, giving him an extra advantage to get involved in play. However, keep in mind that Brisbane Lions are a tough team, having won 9 of their last 10 games. They also score heavily before half-time, which could limit the number of chances Ward gets if they take control early. Still, considering how our numbers rate his chances, this bet has a good shot at hitting.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Jarman Impey Over 19.5 Disposals (-111)

Jarman Impey has been getting a lot of the ball lately, making him a solid choice for this bet. Hawthorn is getting the ball inside 50 more often than their opponents, which usually means more opportunities for players like Impey to rack up disposals. He should have plenty of chances to hit that over 19.5 mark. One thing to keep in mind is that Hawthorn has been losing the contested ball slightly, which could limit their chances at times. But with Impey's current form and the way Hawthorn plays, he's likely to get those touches.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals (-119)

Hawthorn is playing at home, and they have been pretty good at getting the ball inside their 50. They average 8.1 more inside 50s than their opponents over the last 10 games. Conor McKenna has been a solid player lately, and with Hawthorn's offensive pushes, he has a good chance to kick at least one goal in this match. However, Brisbane Lions are on a roll, winning 9 of their last 10 games and dominating their opponents by an average of 31 points. They also have strong goal-scoring before half-time, averaging nearly 50 points. McKenna scoring might be tough if Brisbane's defense holds strong, but the chances are still looking good for him to find the goal.

That is everything our model likes in this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.