Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Picks: Odds Analysis & Top Props

For the Hawks to cover the spread tonight, they need to keep the game close or win against the Lions. Our numbers show this matchup is nearly a coin flip, which means it could go either way. Hawthorn has a slight home advantage, and they are just a little behind Brisbane on the ladder. The most concrete risk is that the point difference is very narrow, and Brisbane has a better ladder percentage. However, with the Hawks playing at home, they often perform well in front of their fans. If they can play tough defense and take advantage of their home field, they have a solid chance to cover the spread.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Lloyd Meek Over 10.5 Disposals (-114)

The odds for Lloyd Meek to have over 10.5 disposals are looking pretty appealing at -114. Our numbers give this a good chance because he's been really accurate with his goal attempts lately, hitting about 50 out of 100, which is way better than most players. Plus, he's been getting a lot of targets, averaging 0.5 goals, and he seems to step up when the team is in the lead, with his stats showing a mark of 0.5 in that area. The biggest risk here is how close these two teams can play each other, which might limit opportunities. Still, if Meek keeps up his form, he should have a solid shot at hitting that over on disposals. It's not a guarantee, but the numbers are definitely in his favor.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Josh Ward Over 20.5 Disposals (-115)

The odds for Josh Ward to have over 20.5 disposals are looking pretty good at -115. Our numbers show that he's been getting a lot more chances lately, with an average of 2.5 score launches compared to the usual 1.1. That means he's getting into the game more and helping his team create scoring opportunities. Plus, he's also been involved in a lot of plays, with 1.5 ground ball gets on average, which is higher than what we typically see. The main risk here is that the game could be tight, and if the Brisbane Lions put on a strong defense, it might limit his touches. Overall, though, our numbers suggest he has a solid shot at going over that total.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Blake Hardwick Over 11.5 Kicks (-122)

Blake Hardwick has been getting involved quite a bit lately, showing he's ready to make an impact for the Hawthorn Hawks. Our numbers suggest that he has a good chance to get over 11.5 kicks in this matchup against the Brisbane Lions. With his recent form, he should find opportunities to rack up kicks throughout the game. The biggest risk here is that both teams are close in talent, which could lead to a tight contest. Still, if Hardwick keeps playing the way he has been, he should hit that mark. Betting on him to go over 11.5 kicks feels like a solid choice right now.

That is the whole read on this one. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.