On Monday 5 October 2026, Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Josh Allen (BUF) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns, priced at +122 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Josh Allen (BUF) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+122)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Josh Allen (BUF) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at +122 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Under 55.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Under 55.5 Rush + Rec Yards. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate (-417)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -417 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
DeMario Douglas (NE) Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is DeMario Douglas (NE) Under 30.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Buffalo Bills. That is a Team Total bet. It was priced at +140 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots: Buffalo Bills (+140)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Buffalo Bills. That is a Team Total bet. It was priced at +140 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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