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Model picks & player props
Buffalo Bills
VS
Denver Broncos

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:17AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NFL
Denver
Sat 17 Jan 2026, 9:30PM
17
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Buffalo Bills -1.5 Spread +100

The model graded 17 markets for Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $200 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 17 Jan 2026, 9:30PM at Denver.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win56.4%
The price says50.0%
Best price+100
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Buffalo Bills -1.5 Lean56% chance +100
Spread Lean56% chance —
Total Points Lean52% chance —
Total Points Lean54% chance —
Moneyline Lean51% chance —
Total Points Lean54% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Lil'Jordan Humphrey Over 24.5 · $100 returned $650

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Buffalo Bills
+1.5
-115
+ 16 more markets
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All 17 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Buffalo BillsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Buffalo BillsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Buffalo BillsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Buffalo Bills

  • Khalil Shakir WRQuestionable
  • Keon Coleman WRQuestionable
  • Ty Johnson RBQuestionable
  • Terrel Bernard LBQuestionable
  • Jude Bowry OTQuestionable
  • Connor McGovern CQuestionable
  • Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LBOut
  • Michael Hoecht DEQuestionable

Denver Broncos

  • Jonathon Cooper LBOut
  • Marvin Mims Jr. WRQuestionable
  • Reese Taylor CBQuestionable
  • Riley Moss CBQuestionable
  • Levelle Bailey LBOut
  • Luke Wattenberg CQuestionable
  • Matt Henningsen DEOut
  • Michael Deiter COut
  • Caleb Lohner TEQuestionable
Availability updated Aug 30, 6:59PM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBuffalo Bills to winNo line posted

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadBuffalo Bills spreadNo line posted

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsBills @ BroncosNo line posted

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos — what the model found

Our model graded 17 betting markets for Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos — 17 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

17
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 17 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 16 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos — recent results

Denver Broncos have won 3 of their last 5 games; Buffalo Bills have won 4 of their last 5.

Denver Broncos — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W34–6MINHome
L13–33GBHome
W27–7ATLAway
L7–10NEHome
W33–30BUFHome
Buffalo Bills — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W28–27PITHome
W31–7CLEAway
W29–14CARHome
L30–33DENAway
W27–24JAXAway

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Denver Broncos won 1, Buffalo Bills won 0.

DateDenver BroncosBuffalo BillsWinner
Jan 173330Denver Broncos

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Denver Broncos
PlayerStatus
Jonathon Cooper LBOUT
Marvin Mims Jr. WRQUESTIONABLE
Reese Taylor CBQUESTIONABLE
Riley Moss CBQUESTIONABLE
Levelle Bailey LBOUT
Luke Wattenberg CQUESTIONABLE
Matt Henningsen DEOUT
Michael Deiter COUT
Buffalo Bills
PlayerStatus
Khalil Shakir WRQUESTIONABLE
Keon Coleman WRQUESTIONABLE
Ty Johnson RBQUESTIONABLE
Terrel Bernard LBQUESTIONABLE
Jude Bowry OTQUESTIONABLE
Connor McGovern CQUESTIONABLE
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LBOUT
Michael Hoecht DEQUESTIONABLE

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
17 Jan 26 Total Points Over 46.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Bills vs Broncos, or as Broncos vs Bills. The most recent game between them was Saturday 17 January 2026 at Denver. The model has generated 17 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 6 meetings on record
Buffalo Bills 4–2 across the last 6 meetings · these games average 46.5 points (meetings on record since 2017)
DateGameScoreWinner
17 Jan 2026Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos33–30Denver Broncos
12 Jan 2025Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills31–7Buffalo Bills
13 Nov 2023Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills22–24Denver Broncos
19 Dec 2020Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos19–48Buffalo Bills
24 Nov 2019Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills20–3Buffalo Bills
24 Sep 2017Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills26–16Buffalo Bills
Today's selected board

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