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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Steelers
VS
New England Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 19, 7:45PM UTC

Our model graded 60 markets for Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots and backs Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $385.

NFL
New England
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 5:00PM
20
Game markets graded
40
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 Alternate Spreads H1 +285

The model graded 60 markets for Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $385 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 20 Sep 2026, 5:00PM at New England.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win28.3%
The price says26.0%
Best price+285
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alternate Spreads H1 Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 Long-shot28% chance +285
Alternate Spreads H1 Members only Long-shot32% chance Members
Alternate Totals H2 Members only Long-shot31% chance Members
Alternate Team Totals H2 Members only Long-shot15% chance Members
Totals H1 Members only Long-shot40% chance Members
Alternate Team Totals H1 Members only Long-shot17% chance Members
Totals Q4 Members only Lean42% chance Members
Receiving Yards (Alt) × 3 props Highup to 93% Members
Receptions (Alt) × 3 props Highup to 87% Members
Rushing Yards (Alt) × 1 prop Highup to 84% Members
Rushing Yards × 1 prop Highup to 71% Members
Receiving Yards × 3 props Highup to 70% Members
Receptions × 3 props Highup to 74% Members
Last Touchdown Scorer × 13 props Long-shotup to 21% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →
New England Patriots are the model's favourite to beat Pittsburgh Steelers, with a 71% chance to win. Predicted score: New England Patriots 25.7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18.4. Kick-off Sun 20 Sep, 5:00PM at New England. Best bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 at +285.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 23 bookmakers compared
Winner
Steelers3.13+212Kalshi
Patriots1.45-223Kalshi
Total points
Over41.52.00+100Kalshi
Under41.51.96-104Kalshi

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots odds by bookmaker

23 books · best price in green
BookSteelers winPatriots winPatriots -5.5Over 41.5Under 41.5
Kalshi3.13+2121.45-223—2.00+1001.96-104
Polymarket3.18+2171.46-2172.02+1022.02+1021.98-102
Bally Bet——1.89-112——
BetAnySports———1.91-1101.91-110
BetMGM———1.93-1081.91-110
BetOnline———1.91-1101.91-110
betPARX——1.89-112——
BetRivers——1.89-112——
BetUS———1.91-1101.91-110
Bovada———1.91-1101.91-110
DraftKings——1.93-1081.93-1081.89-112
ESPN BET——1.91-1101.95-1051.87-115
Fanatics———1.91-1101.91-110
FanDuel———1.91-1101.91-110

Since the market opened: Patriots to win opened 1.43, best now 1.46; the over 41.5 opened 1.90, best now 2.02 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best NFL market — 174 of 355 right (nfl alternate team total points overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 15
Kansas City Chiefs Over 17.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $136
Our call on this game: — members only · unlock tonight's call1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alternate Spreads H1
Pittsburgh Steelers
-3.5
+285
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 40 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,510+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh SteelersAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh SteelersAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotals Q4The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Pittsburgh Steelers on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Pittsburgh Steelers
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on Pittsburgh Steelers
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Joey Porter Jr. CBOut
  • Michael Pittman Jr. WROut
  • Troy Fautanu OTQuestionable
  • DeShon Elliott SOut

New England Patriots

  • Carlton Davis III CBOut
  • Dametrious Crownover OTOut
  • Dre'Mont Jones DEQuestionable
  • Ben Brown CQuestionable
  • A.J. Brown WROut
Availability updated Sep 19, 6:40PM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Rhamondre Stevenson NE Receiving Yards (Alt)
DeMario Douglas NE Receptions (Alt)
TreVeyon Henderson NE Rushing Yards (Alt)
Rhamondre Stevenson NE Receptions (Alt)
TreVeyon Henderson NE Rushing Yards

+ 40 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

3 markets live
MoneylinePittsburgh Steelers to win+205
50%model win %

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadPittsburgh Steelers spread+5.5 -110
59%cover %
7-3Free board · line bets
Last 107-3Home5-1Away2-2
Free board · recent7-3

Pittsburgh Steelers spread — on our free board this call has landed 7 of 10 times, updated every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsSteelers @ PatriotsOver 41.5 -108
58%over %

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots — what the model found

Our model graded 60 betting markets for Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots — 20 on the game itself and 40 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
40
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 60 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 59 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots — recent results

New England Patriots have won 1 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Steelers have won 2 of their last 5.

New England Patriots — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L10–13SEAAway
L13–37CLEAway
W24–21PHIHome
D13–13INDHome
L13–29SEAHome
Pittsburgh Steelers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W20–13ATLHome
L27–28BUFAway
L0–17NYJHome
W28–9GBHome
L6–30HOUHome

Who’s out or in doubt

9 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
Carlton Davis III CBOUT
Dametrious Crownover OTOUT
Dre'Mont Jones DEQUESTIONABLE
Ben Brown CQUESTIONABLE
A.J. Brown WROUT
Pittsburgh Steelers
PlayerStatus
Joey Porter Jr. CBOUT
Michael Pittman Jr. WROUT
Troy Fautanu OTQUESTIONABLE
DeShon Elliott SOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots — where the money went

Since betting opened on Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, the market has moved away from Over across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Total Points — Over 42.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Pittsburgh Steelers 4.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — New England Patriots -4.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 42.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 41.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 41.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — New England Patriots -5.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Pittsburgh Steelers 5.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Steelers vs Patriots, or as Patriots vs Steelers. The next scheduled game is Sunday 20 September 2026 at New England. The model has generated 20 game picks and 40 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 9 meetings on record
New England Patriots 7–2 across the last 9 meetings · these games average 40.4 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
21 Sep 2025Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots14–21Pittsburgh Steelers
7 Dec 2023New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers18–21New England Patriots
18 Sep 2022New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers14–17New England Patriots
8 Sep 2019Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots33–3New England Patriots
16 Dec 2018New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers17–10Pittsburgh Steelers
17 Dec 2017New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers24–27New England Patriots
22 Jan 2017Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots36–17New England Patriots
23 Oct 2016New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers16–27New England Patriots
10 Sep 2015Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots28–21New England Patriots

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