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Model picks & player props
New England Patriots
VS
Denver Broncos

New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 3:52PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NFL
Denver
Sun 25 Jan 2026, 8:00PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Denver Broncos 3.5 (Spread)
The model graded 20 markets for New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $198 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 66.4%, fair odds 1.51, book price -102, model edge +15.9%. Tip-off Sun 25 Jan 2026, 8:00PM at Denver.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Denver Broncos 3.5 · $100 returned $196

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Denver Broncos
+5.5
-115
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Denver BroncosPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Denver BroncosPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New England Patriots

  • Carlton Davis III CBQuestionable
  • Quintayvious Hutchins LBQuestionable
  • Jimmy Kibble WROut
  • Jeremiah Webb WROut
  • Brenden Schooler SOut
  • Harold Landry III LBOut

Denver Broncos

  • Alex Forsyth CQuestionable
  • Caleb Lohner TEQuestionable
  • Nick Gargiulo GOut
  • Jordan Turner LBOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 12:20PM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineDenver Broncos to winNo line posted

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadDenver Broncos spreadNo line posted

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsPatriots @ BroncosNo line posted

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for New England Patriots at Denver Broncos — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Who’s out or in doubt

10 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Denver Broncos
PlayerStatus
Alex Forsyth CQUESTIONABLE
Caleb Lohner TEQUESTIONABLE
Nick Gargiulo GOUT
Jordan Turner LBOUT
New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
Carlton Davis III CBQUESTIONABLE
Quintayvious Hutchins LBQUESTIONABLE
Jimmy Kibble WROUT
Jeremiah Webb WROUT
Brenden Schooler SOUT
Harold Landry III LBOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
25 Jan 26 Spread Denver Broncos +5.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jan 26 Spread Denver Broncos +4.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jan 26 Spread Denver Broncos +3.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Patriots vs Broncos, or as Broncos vs Patriots. The most recent game between them was Sunday 25 January 2026 at Denver. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

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