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Model picks & player props
New England Patriots
VS
Jacksonville Jaguars

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 22, 7:08AM UTC

Our model graded 20 markets for New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars and backs Over 8.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $191.

NFL
Jacksonville
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 5:00PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 8.5 Totals Q1 -110

The model graded 20 markets for New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 27 Sep 2026, 5:00PM at Jacksonville.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win63.7%
The price says50.0%
Best price-110
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Totals Q1 Over 8.5 High64% chance -110
Alternate Team Total Points Members only Long-shot24% chance Members
Alternate Team Totals H2 Members only Long-shot38% chance Members
Alternate Totals H1 Members only Lean46% chance Members
Totals Q4 Members only Lean58% chance Members
Alternate Team Totals H1 Members only Lean50% chance Members
Totals H1 Members only Lean54% chance Members
Totals H2 Members only Lean55% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →
Jacksonville Jaguars are the model's favourite to beat New England Patriots, with a 50% chance to win. Predicted score: Jacksonville Jaguars 24.5 – New England Patriots 19.3. Kick-off Sun 27 Sep, 5:00PM at Jacksonville. Best bet: Over 8.5 at -110.
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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best NFL market — 349 of 542 right (nfl alternate team total points overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 22
Over 14.5
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $132
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Totals Q1
Over
8.5
-110
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotals Q4The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from New England Patriots on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward New England Patriots
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Betanysports
on New England Patriots
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New England Patriots

  • Dametrious Crownover OTOut
  • Carlton Davis III CBOut
  • Mike Onwenu GOut
  • Dell Pettus SQuestionable
  • Eli Raridon TEQuestionable
  • Craig Woodson SQuestionable
  • Dre'Mont Jones DEQuestionable

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • DaVon Hamilton DTQuestionable
  • B.J. Green II DEOut
Availability updated Sep 22, 12:44AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Outdoors with 12 mph wind, 63°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfacenatural grass
Wind12 mph
Temperature63°F
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

3 markets live
MoneylineNew England Patriots to win+136

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadJacksonville Jaguars spread-3 -108
57%cover %

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsPatriots @ JaguarsUnder 45.5 -108
55%under %

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars — recent results

Jacksonville Jaguars have won 3 of their last 5 games; New England Patriots have won 2 of their last 5.

Jacksonville Jaguars — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L13–20DENAway
W34–10CLEHome
W19–0TBHome
L17–34CARHome
W24–20NOAway
New England Patriots — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W20–3PITHome
L10–13SEAAway
L13–37CLEAway
W24–21PHIHome
D13–13INDHome

Who’s out or in doubt

9 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars
PlayerStatus
DaVon Hamilton DTQUESTIONABLE
B.J. Green II DEOUT
New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
Dametrious Crownover OTOUT
Carlton Davis III CBOUT
Mike Onwenu GOUT
Dell Pettus SQUESTIONABLE
Eli Raridon TEQUESTIONABLE
Craig Woodson SQUESTIONABLE
Dre'Mont Jones DEQUESTIONABLE

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars — where the money went

Since betting opened on New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars, the market has moved away from New England Patriots across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — New England Patriots▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Jacksonville Jaguars▲ Money came for this
Spread — New England Patriots 2.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — New England Patriots 1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 45.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 45.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Patriots vs Jaguars, or as Jaguars vs Patriots. The next scheduled game is Sunday 27 September 2026 at Jacksonville. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 5 meetings on record
New England Patriots 3–2 across the last 5 meetings · these games average 54.2 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
20 Oct 2024New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars32–16Jacksonville Jaguars
2 Jan 2022Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots50–10New England Patriots
16 Sep 2018New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars31–20Jacksonville Jaguars
21 Jan 2018Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots24–20New England Patriots
27 Sep 2015Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots51–17New England Patriots

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