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Model picks & player props
NFL
Jacksonville
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots
VS
Jacksonville Jaguars

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 68 markets for New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars and backs Over 3.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $195.

20
Game markets graded
48
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Jacksonville Jaguars
over 3.5 points
Over 3.5 Team Totals Q1
You bet$10 If it wins$19.52Best price-105
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win59.7%
The price says48.4%

The model graded 68 markets for New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $195 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 27 Sep 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Jacksonville.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Totals Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars Over 3.5 Lean60% chance -105
Alternate Totals Q1 Members only Long-shot39% chance Members
Totals Q1 Members only Lean60% chance Members
Spread Members only Lean46% chance Members
Alternate Team Total Points Members only Lean43% chance Members
Team Total Members only Lean56% chance Members
Alternate Team Totals H1 Members only Long-shot35% chance Members
Pass Attempts × 1 prop Highup to 71% Members
Receiving Yards × 1 prop Highup to 76% Members
Passing Yards (Alt) × 1 prop Highup to 86% Members
Last Touchdown Scorer × 12 props Long-shotup to 19% Members
Rushing Attempts (Alt) × 1 prop Highup to 70% Members
Rushing Attempts × 1 prop Highup to 70% Members
Anytime TD × 8 props Leanup to 41% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →

New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars last met on Sun 27 Sep 2026: Jacksonville Jaguars won 35-6. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Totals Q1
Over
3.5
-105
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 48 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 68,391+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Jacksonville JaguarsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Jacksonville JaguarsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New England Patriots

  • Will Campbell OTQuestionable
  • Cory Durden DTQuestionable
  • TreVeyon Henderson RBQuestionable
  • A.J. Brown WROut
  • Marcus Bryant OTOut
  • Charles Woods CBQuestionable
  • Dre'Mont Jones DEQuestionable
  • Craig Woodson SQuestionable
  • Morgan Moses OTQuestionable
  • Marcus Jones CBQuestionable
  • Christian Elliss LBQuestionable
  • Kevin Byard SQuestionable
  • Karon Prunty CBQuestionable
  • Carlton Davis III CBQuestionable
  • Channing Canada CBQuestionable

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Nate Boerkircher TEQuestionable
  • Montaric Brown CBQuestionable
  • Cole Van Lanen OTQuestionable
  • Emmanuel Pregnon GQuestionable
  • Jourdan Lewis CBQuestionable
  • Jarrian Jones CBQuestionable
  • Anton Harrison OTOut
  • Eric Murray SQuestionable
  • Ross Matiscik LSQuestionable
Availability updated Oct 16, 1:58AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Outdoors with 12 mph wind, 63°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 24 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfacenatural grass
Wind12 mph
Temperature63°F
Availability24 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Trevor Lawrence JAX Pass Attempts
Travis Hunter JAX Receiving Yards
Trevor Lawrence JAX Passing Yards (Alt)
LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX Last Touchdown Scorer
Travis Hunter JAX Last Touchdown Scorer

+ 48 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew England Patriots to winNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadJacksonville Jaguars spreadNo line posted

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsPatriots @ JaguarsNo line posted

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars — what the model found

Our model graded 68 betting markets for New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars — 20 on the game itself and 48 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
48
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 68 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 67 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars — recent results

Jacksonville Jaguars have won 4 of their last 5 games; New England Patriots have won 3 of their last 5.

Jacksonville Jaguars — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W19–17PHIHome
W22–17CINAway
W35–6NEHome
L13–20DENAway
W34–10CLEHome
New England Patriots — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W45–17LVHome
W29–26BUFAway
L6–35JAXAway
W20–3PITHome
L10–13SEAAway

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Jacksonville Jaguars won 1, New England Patriots won 0.

DateJacksonville JaguarsNew England PatriotsWinner
Sep 27356Jacksonville Jaguars

Who’s out or in doubt

24 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars
PlayerStatus
Nate Boerkircher TEQUESTIONABLE
Montaric Brown CBQUESTIONABLE
Cole Van Lanen OTQUESTIONABLE
Emmanuel Pregnon GQUESTIONABLE
Jourdan Lewis CBQUESTIONABLE
Jarrian Jones CBQUESTIONABLE
Anton Harrison OTOUT
Eric Murray SQUESTIONABLE
New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
Will Campbell OTQUESTIONABLE
Cory Durden DTQUESTIONABLE
TreVeyon Henderson RBQUESTIONABLE
A.J. Brown WROUT
Marcus Bryant OTOUT
Charles Woods CBQUESTIONABLE
Dre'Mont Jones DEQUESTIONABLE
Craig Woodson SQUESTIONABLE

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Patriots vs Jaguars, or as Jaguars vs Patriots. The most recent game between them was Sunday 27 September 2026 at Jacksonville. The model has generated 20 game picks and 48 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars head-to-head record

Final scores · 6 meetings on record
Even at 3–3 across the last 6 meetings · these games average 52.0 points (meetings on record since 2015)

Last meeting: Sun 27 Sep 2026, New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars: the Jaguars won 35-6.

DateGameScoreWinner
27 Sep 2026New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars35–6Jacksonville Jaguars
20 Oct 2024New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars32–16Jacksonville Jaguars
2 Jan 2022Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots50–10New England Patriots
16 Sep 2018New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars31–20Jacksonville Jaguars
21 Jan 2018Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots24–20New England Patriots
27 Sep 2015Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots51–17New England Patriots

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