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Model picks & player props
NFL
Houston
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo Bills
VS
Houston Texans

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 65 markets for Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans and backs Houston Texans -5.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $389.

20
Game markets graded
45
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Houston Texans -5.5
Houston Texans -5.5 Alternate Spreads Q1
You bet$10 If it wins$38.90Best price+289
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win45.7%
The price says50.2%

The model graded 65 markets for Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $389 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 13 Sep 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Houston.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alternate Spreads Q1 Houston Texans -5.5 Lean46% chance +289
Alternate Totals Q1 Members only Lean54% chance Members
Alternate Spreads Q1 Members only Lean46% chance Members
Alternate Spreads H2 Members only Lean56% chance Members
Team Totals H1 Members only High60% chance Members
Alternate Totals H1 Members only Lean44% chance Members
Alternate Totals H2 Members only Lean56% chance Members
Alternate Spreads H1 Members only Lean56% chance Members
Totals Q1 Members only High71% chance Members
Receiving Yards (Alt) × 3 props Highup to 94% Members
Last Touchdown Scorer × 14 props Long-shotup to 31% Members
Receiving Yards × 4 props Highup to 73% Members
Rushing Yards (Alt) × 1 prop Highup to 95% Members
Receptions × 4 props Highup to 71% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →

Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans last met on Sun 13 Sep 2026: Buffalo Bills won 36-31. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alternate Spreads Q1
Houston Texans
-5.5
+289
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 45 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,095+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Houston TexansAlternate Spreads Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston TexansAlternate Spreads Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Buffalo BillsAlternate Spreads H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Buffalo BillsAlternate Spreads H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Buffalo BillsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston TexansMoneyline 3 Way Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston TexansAlternate Spreads H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Buffalo Bills

  • Dee Alford CBQuestionable
  • Ed Oliver DTOut
  • Landon Jackson DEQuestionable
  • DJ Moore WRQuestionable
  • Joshua Palmer WROut
  • Te'Cory Couch CBQuestionable

Houston Texans

  • Kayden McDonald DTQuestionable
  • M.J. Stewart SQuestionable
  • Tank Dell WROut
  • Braden Smith OTOut
  • Aireontae Ersery OTQuestionable
  • Ed Ingram GQuestionable
  • Blake Fisher OTQuestionable
  • Jaylin Smith CBOut
Availability updated Oct 10, 7:24PM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans: The game is played retractable roof (closed), so wind and rain won't touch the passing or kicking game, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueretractable roof (closed)
Surfaceartificial turf
Wind / weatherIndoors — wind and precipitation are not a factor
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: indoor and domed games remove wind and rain from the equation, which tends to support passing totals and kicking accuracy versus an exposed outdoor game.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Woody Marks HOU Receiving Yards (Alt)
Nico Collins HOU Last Touchdown Scorer
David Montgomery HOU Receiving Yards
Woody Marks HOU Rushing Yards (Alt)
David Montgomery HOU Receptions

+ 45 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineHouston Texans to winNo line posted

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadBuffalo Bills spreadNo line posted

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsBills @ TexansNo line posted

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans — what the model found

Our model graded 65 betting markets for Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans — 20 on the game itself and 45 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
45
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 65 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 64 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans — recent results

Houston Texans have won 0 of their last 5 games; Buffalo Bills have won 4 of their last 5.

Houston Texans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L30–34DALHome
L17–19INDAway
L6–20CINHome
L31–36BUFHome
L13–16CARAway
Buffalo Bills — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L26–29NEHome
W24–16LACHome
W41–31DETHome
W36–31HOUAway
W28–27PITHome

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Houston Texans won 0, Buffalo Bills won 1.

DateHouston TexansBuffalo BillsWinner
Sep 133136Buffalo Bills

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Houston Texans
PlayerStatus
Kayden McDonald DTQUESTIONABLE
M.J. Stewart SQUESTIONABLE
Tank Dell WROUT
Braden Smith OTOUT
Aireontae Ersery OTQUESTIONABLE
Ed Ingram GQUESTIONABLE
Blake Fisher OTQUESTIONABLE
Jaylin Smith CBOUT
Buffalo Bills
PlayerStatus
Dee Alford CBQUESTIONABLE
Ed Oliver DTOUT
Landon Jackson DEQUESTIONABLE
DJ Moore WRQUESTIONABLE
Joshua Palmer WROUT
Te'Cory Couch CBQUESTIONABLE

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Bills vs Texans, or as Texans vs Bills. The most recent game between them was Sunday 13 September 2026 at Houston. The model has generated 20 game picks and 45 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans head-to-head record

Final scores · 7 meetings on record
Houston Texans 4–3 across the last 7 meetings · these games average 45.3 points (meetings on record since 2015)

Last meeting: Sun 13 Sep 2026, Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: the Bills won 36-31.

DateGameScoreWinner
13 Sep 2026Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans31–36Buffalo Bills
20 Nov 2025Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans23–19Houston Texans
6 Oct 2024Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans23–20Houston Texans
3 Oct 2021Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills40–0Buffalo Bills
4 Jan 2020Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans22–19Houston Texans
14 Oct 2018Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans20–13Houston Texans
6 Dec 2015Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills30–21Buffalo Bills

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