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Model picks & player props
Buffalo Bills
VS
Houston Texans

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 20, 2:26PM UTC

Our model graded 65 markets for Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans and backs Buffalo Bills -3.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $262.

NFL
Houston
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 5:00PM
20
Game markets graded
45
Props graded
59.8%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Buffalo Bills -3.5 Alternate Spreads H2 +162

The model graded 65 markets for Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $262 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 59.8% across 127 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 13 Sep 2026, 5:00PM at Houston.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win56.1%
The price says52.5%
Best price+162
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alternate Spreads H2 Buffalo Bills -3.5 Lean56% chance +162
Alternate Team Totals H1 Members only High68% chance Members
Alternate Spreads H2 Members only Lean56% chance Members
Alternate Spreads H1 Members only High74% chance Members
Moneyline 3 Way Q1 Members only Lean51% chance Members
Team Totals H2 Members only Lean57% chance Members
Moneyline 3 Way Q3 Members only Lean51% chance Members
Alternate Team Total Points Members only Long-shot37% chance Members
Moneyline 3 Way Q2 Members only Lean49% chance Members
Receiving Yards (Alt) × 3 props Highup to 94% Members
Last Touchdown Scorer × 14 props Long-shotup to 31% Members
Receiving Yards × 4 props Highup to 73% Members
Rushing Yards (Alt) × 1 prop Highup to 95% Members
Receptions × 4 props Highup to 71% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →

Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans last met on Sun 13 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 33.5 · $100 returned $676

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best NFL market — 174 of 355 right (nfl alternate team total points overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 15
Kansas City Chiefs Over 17.5
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Our call on this game: — members only · unlock tonight's call1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alternate Spreads H2
Buffalo Bills
-3.5
+162
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 45 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,564+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Buffalo BillsAlternate Spreads H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Buffalo BillsAlternate Spreads H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston TexansAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Buffalo BillsMoneyline 3 Way Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston TexansAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston TexansAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston TexansAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Buffalo BillsMoneyline 3 Way Q3The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston TexansMoneyline 3 Way Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston TexansMoneyline 3 Way Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Buffalo Bills

  • DJ Moore WRQuestionable
  • Skyler Bell WROut
  • T.J. Sanders DTOut
  • Ed Oliver DTOut
  • Ty Johnson RBOut
  • Ar'maj Reed-Adams GOut
  • Jalon Kilgore SOut
  • Jude Bowry OTOut

Houston Texans

  • Nico Collins WROut
  • Ed Ingram GOut
  • Jadeveon Clowney DEOut
  • Jake Hummel LBOut
  • Henry To'oTo'o LBOut
  • Kayden McDonald DTOut
Availability updated Sep 19, 8:14PM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans: The game is played retractable roof (closed), so wind and rain won't touch the passing or kicking game, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueretractable roof (closed)
Surfaceartificial turf
Wind / weatherIndoors — wind and precipitation are not a factor
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: indoor and domed games remove wind and rain from the equation, which tends to support passing totals and kicking accuracy versus an exposed outdoor game.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Woody Marks HOU Receiving Yards (Alt)
Nico Collins HOU Last Touchdown Scorer
David Montgomery HOU Receiving Yards
Woody Marks HOU Rushing Yards (Alt)
David Montgomery HOU Receptions

+ 45 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineHouston Texans to winNo line posted

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadBuffalo Bills spreadNo line posted

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsBills @ TexansNo line posted

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans — what the model found

Our model graded 65 betting markets for Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans — 20 on the game itself and 45 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
45
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 65 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 64 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans — recent results

Houston Texans have won 0 of their last 5 games; Buffalo Bills have won 5 of their last 5.

Houston Texans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L31–36BUFHome
L13–16CARAway
L20–22LVHome
L7–27LACHome
L16–28NEAway
Buffalo Bills — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W41–31DETHome
W36–31HOUAway
W28–27PITHome
W31–7CLEAway
W29–14CARHome

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Houston Texans won 0, Buffalo Bills won 1.

DateHouston TexansBuffalo BillsWinner
Sep 133136Buffalo Bills

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Houston Texans
PlayerStatus
Nico Collins WROUT
Ed Ingram GOUT
Jadeveon Clowney DEOUT
Jake Hummel LBOUT
Henry To'oTo'o LBOUT
Kayden McDonald DTOUT
Buffalo Bills
PlayerStatus
DJ Moore WRQUESTIONABLE
Skyler Bell WROUT
T.J. Sanders DTOUT
Ed Oliver DTOUT
Ty Johnson RBOUT
Ar'maj Reed-Adams GOUT
Jalon Kilgore SOUT
Jude Bowry OTOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
127
Total Picks
59.8%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
13 Sep 26 Alternate Spreads H1 Houston Texans 5.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Alternate Spreads H1 Houston Texans 6.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Team Totals H2 Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Alternate Team Total Points Over 28.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Alternate Team Total Points Over 27.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Alternate Team Totals H1 Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Alternate Team Totals H1 Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Alternate Team Totals H1 Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Alternate Team Totals H1 Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Moneyline 3 Way Q3 Buffalo Bills ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Moneyline 3 Way Q2 Houston Texans ✗ MISS
13 Sep 26 Moneyline 3 Way Q1 Houston Texans ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Moneyline 3 Way Q1 Buffalo Bills ✗ MISS
13 Sep 26 Alternate Spreads H2 Buffalo Bills -3.5 ✗ MISS
13 Sep 26 Alternate Spreads H2 Buffalo Bills -2.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Bills vs Texans, or as Texans vs Bills. The most recent game between them was Sunday 13 September 2026 at Houston. The model has generated 20 game picks and 45 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 59.8% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 7 meetings on record
Houston Texans 4–3 across the last 7 meetings · these games average 45.3 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Sep 2026Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans31–36Buffalo Bills
20 Nov 2025Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans23–19Houston Texans
6 Oct 2024Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans23–20Houston Texans
3 Oct 2021Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills40–0Buffalo Bills
4 Jan 2020Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans22–19Houston Texans
14 Oct 2018Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans20–13Houston Texans
6 Dec 2015Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills30–21Buffalo Bills

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