Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 3 September 2026. Our model likes 12 bets here. The one it likes most is Connor Budarick (Western Bulldogs) Over 9.5 Disposals, priced at -400 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Looking for AFL same-game multi tips this round? Here are the 4 multis our model likes most, built only from legs where our number beats the bookmaker's price.
Connor Budarick (Western Bulldogs) Over 9.5 Disposals (-400)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Connor Budarick (Western Bulldogs) Over 9.5 Disposals. It was priced at -400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 69.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over (-625)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 69.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over. It was priced at -625 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 19.5 Disposals (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 19.5 Disposals. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) Over 12.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 12.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Geelong Cats play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 21.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 22.5 Disposals (-500)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Geelong Cats play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 22.5 Disposals. It was priced at -500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 23.5 Disposals (-357)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Geelong Cats play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 23.5 Disposals. It was priced at -357 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 10.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-476)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals. It was priced at -476 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) Over 1.5 player_tackles_over (-476)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) Over 1.5 player_tackles_over. It was priced at -476 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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