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The latest Bet Better model pick for Oliver Florent is Under 23.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +18.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 2:20AM UTC
AFL

Oliver Florent

Carlton

+18.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -112 (1.89) · $100→$189
+18.3% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.2%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+18.3%
Predicted Value
20.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.2%—52.9%1.40+18.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Oliver Florent (Carlton) Under 23.5 Disposals (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to AFL player props, the devil's in the details. Oliver Florent, the dynamo from Carlton Blues, heads to Marvel Stadium to take on St Kilda Saints. Recent form shows he's been a midfield maestro, averaging 21 disposals in his last five away games. However, against St Kilda, he typically dips slightly, averaging 21 disposals in their matchups. The line is set at 23.5, but with Florent's recent performances hovering just below that mark, the under seems like a smart play. With his contested possessions at 4 and a disposal efficiency of 78.2%, he may fall just short in this showdown. Trust the numbers, and snag the under on Florent's disposals for this clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.4avg disposals L5
Away21vs St Kilda27.2Season best28
O 20.550%
O 21.540%
O 22.540%
O 23.540%
O 24.530%
O 25.520%
Game log vs line (O 22.5)avg 20.1 · hi 24 · lo 12
19222116122322192324

Oliver Florent has gone over 22.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22.4 disposals, best 28).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 23.5 Under -112 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Disposals 17.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Disposals 16.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Oliver Florent (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oliver Florent is Under 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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