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The latest Bet Better model pick for Hugo Garcia is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 86%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +17.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 2:28PM UTC
AFL

Hugo Garcia

St Kilda

+17.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -217 (1.46) · $100→$146
+17.4% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
85.9%
Implied Probability
68.5%
Model Edge
+17.4%
Predicted Value
25.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals85.9%—68.5%1.16+17.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 20.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winning machines, Hugo Garcia stands out like a beacon in the storm. Set to rock Marvel Stadium on Sunday against the Carlton Blues, Garcia's recent form is simply scorching. Averaging an impressive 25.8 disposals in his last five home games, he’s been a midfield maestro. With a keen eye for intercepts and a knack for gaining meters, Garcia’s work rate is relentless. Despite facing Carlton's pressure, his 79.6% disposal efficiency is a testament to his composure under fire. The stats paint a picture of a player in the form of his life. Backing Garcia to surpass 20.5 disposals feels like a no-brainer, given his recent consistency and hunger for the hard ball. When the game is on the line, expect Garcia to step up and dominate the contest.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 24.5
25avg disposals L5
Home25.8vs Carlton12.3Season best14
O 22.560%
O 23.560%
O 24.560%
O 25.560%
O 26.560%
O 27.550%
Game log vs line (O 24.5)avg 7.8 · hi 14 · lo 0
1114761150610

Hugo Garcia has gone over 24.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 25 disposals, best 14).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 20.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 19.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 18.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Hugo Garcia is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.4% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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