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AFL

Hugo Garcia

St Kilda

Value call

Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) has one live pick today: over 21.5 disposals that pays $164 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
55 in 100
Predicted
25.8 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 55.1% · before adjusting for past results 80.9% · the book's price implies 61.0% · gap -5.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 7:20 PM AEST
Hugo Garcia
over 21.5 disposals
Disposals Over 21.5 -156 (1.64) · $100→$164
Value call
LEANWins about 55 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$16.40 Odds-156
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Hugo Garcia is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 55%, the price says 61%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 8:25PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals80.9%55.1%61.0%1.81+19.9%

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AI Analysis

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Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 21.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop, Hugo Garcia stands out as a prime candidate to shine in the disposals department against the Carlton Blues. Garcia has been a midfield maestro, consistently racking up possessions, averaging a solid 25.8 disposals over his last 5 home games. His ability to find space and move the ball efficiently, coupled with his knack for contested possessions, makes him a key figure in St Kilda's game plan. Moreover, Garcia's recent form showcases his reliability, boasting a 75% hit rate over his last 4 home games. Facing off against Carlton, a team he's historically performed well against, only adds to his appeal. With a model predicting him to exceed 21.5 disposals and a strong home record, backing Garcia to hit the over feels like a smart play with a high probability of success. Expect Hugo Garcia to be in the thick of the action, collecting possessions aplenty and helping punters snag a win.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Hugo Garcia averaged 7.8 disposals, 0.1 goals and 1.0 marks per game across 9 games in 2024.

7.8
Disposals
0.1
Goals
1.0
Marks
4.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Hugo Garcia recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Carlton10011
17 Aug 24Geelong Cats6001
27 Jul 24Essendon0000
20 Jul 24West Coast Eagles5013
11 May 24Hawthorn11026
4 May 24North Melbourne6027
26 Apr 24Port Adelaide7016
18 Apr 24Western Bulldogs14119
13 Apr 24GWS GIANTS11017
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 18.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 17.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 22.5 Over -204 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Hugo Garcia is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.9% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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