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The latest Bet Better model pick for Hugo Garcia is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 58%, implied 68%, edge +17.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 11:39PM UTC
AFL

Hugo Garcia

St Kilda

+17.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -217 (1.46) · $100→$146
+17.4% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
86 in 100
Predicted
25.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 85.9% · the book's price implies 68.5% · gap +17.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals85.9%57.6%68.5%1.74+17.4%

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AI Analysis

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Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 20.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winning machines, Hugo Garcia stands out like a beacon in the storm. Set to rock Marvel Stadium on Sunday against the Carlton Blues, Garcia's recent form is simply scorching. Averaging an impressive 25.8 disposals in his last five home games, he’s been a midfield maestro. With a keen eye for intercepts and a knack for gaining meters, Garcia’s work rate is relentless. Despite facing Carlton's pressure, his 79.6% disposal efficiency is a testament to his composure under fire. The stats paint a picture of a player in the form of his life. Backing Garcia to surpass 20.5 disposals feels like a no-brainer, given his recent consistency and hunger for the hard ball. When the game is on the line, expect Garcia to step up and dominate the contest.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Hugo Garcia averaged 7.8 disposals, 0.1 goals and 1.0 marks per game across 9 games in 2024.

7.8
Disposals
0.1
Goals
1.0
Marks
4.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Hugo Garcia recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Carlton10011
17 Aug 24Geelong Cats6001
27 Jul 24Essendon0000
20 Jul 24West Coast Eagles5013
11 May 24Hawthorn11026
4 May 24North Melbourne6027
26 Apr 24Port Adelaide7016
18 Apr 24Western Bulldogs14119
13 Apr 24GWS GIANTS11017
Quick answers:How many disposals does Hugo Garcia average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 20.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 19.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 18.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Hugo Garcia is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.4% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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