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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mitch Owens is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 86%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +14.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
AFL

Mitch Owens

St Kilda

+14.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -256 (1.39)
+14.3% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
86.3%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+14.3%
Predicted Value
1.4 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals86.3%—71.9%1.16+14.3%

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AI Analysis

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Mitch Owens (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Mitch Owens to snag over 0.5 goals in the upcoming clash against Geelong, the numbers paint a picture of a player in fine form. Owens has been on fire in his last five away games, averaging an impressive 1.6 goals per outing. His deadly accuracy in front of the big sticks, hitting the target 62.0% of the time, makes him a genuine scoring threat. With an average of 2.8 shots on goal and 6.6 score involvements per game, Owens is constantly in the thick of the action. Facing Geelong, where he has historically bagged 0.7 goals per game, the stage is set for Owens to continue his scoring spree. Backing him to split the middle at least once is a solid bet backed by his recent hot streak and consistent goal-scoring record.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
11.7avg disposals recent
Season best18
Disposals last 10avg 11.7 · hi 18 · lo 4
897418181417913

Mitch Owens has a disposals high of 18 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.7avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 0.7 · hi 2 · lo 0
2000110120

Mitch Owens has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Mitch Owens (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mitch Owens is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.3% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 16 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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