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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mitch Owens is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 86%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +19.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:33PM UTC
AFL

Mitch Owens

St Kilda

+19.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -200 (1.50) · $100→$150
+19.6% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
86.3%
Implied Probability
66.7%
Model Edge
+19.6%
Predicted Value
1.4 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals86.3%66.7%1.16+19.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Mitch Owens (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Mitch Owens' recent form, it's clear he's been knocking on the door of the goalposts. Despite averaging just 0.2 goals in his last five home games, his goal accuracy sits at 20%, indicating he's getting shots away. With an average of 1.6 shots at goal per game, Owens is hungry for that major score. His involvement in the attacking play is evident, with 4.6 score involvements on average. Facing Carlton, against whom he's averaged 0 goals in his last five encounters, Owens has a point to prove. His overall goal accuracy of 60% suggests he's more clinical than his recent stats reflect. With a model edge of 19.6% supporting an over 0.5 goals bet, Owens is primed to snag a goal and make an impact for the St Kilda Saints on home turf.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 13.5
14avg disposals L5
Home15.2vs Carlton16Season best18
O 11.560%
O 12.560%
O 13.560%
O 14.550%
O 15.550%
O 16.540%
Game log vs line (O 13.5)avg 11.7 · hi 18 · lo 4
897418181417913

Mitch Owens has gone over 13.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14 disposals, best 18).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 0.5
0.8avg goals L5
Home0.2vs Carlton1Season best3
O 0.560%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.7 · hi 2 · lo 0
2000110120

Mitch Owens has gone over 0.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.8 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -200 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Mitch Owens (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mitch Owens is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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