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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mitch Owens is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 73%, implied 67%, edge +19.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 9:24PM UTC
AFL

Mitch Owens

St Kilda

+19.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -200 (1.50) · $100→$150
+19.6% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
86 in 100
Predicted
1.4 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 86.3% · the book's price implies 66.7% · gap +19.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals86.3%72.6%66.7%1.38+19.6%

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AI Analysis

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Mitch Owens (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Mitch Owens' recent form, it's clear he's been knocking on the door of the goalposts. Despite averaging just 0.2 goals in his last five home games, his goal accuracy sits at 20%, indicating he's getting shots away. With an average of 1.6 shots at goal per game, Owens is hungry for that major score. His involvement in the attacking play is evident, with 4.6 score involvements on average. Facing Carlton, against whom he's averaged 0 goals in his last five encounters, Owens has a point to prove. His overall goal accuracy of 60% suggests he's more clinical than his recent stats reflect. With a model edge of 19.6% supporting an over 0.5 goals bet, Owens is primed to snag a goal and make an impact for the St Kilda Saints on home turf.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Mitch Owens averaged 12.3 disposals, 0.9 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

12.3
Disposals
0.9
Goals
3.2
Marks
2.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Mitch Owens recorded 13 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Carlton13022
17 Aug 24Geelong Cats9213
11 Aug 24Richmond17151
4 Aug 24Brisbane Lions14042
27 Jul 24Essendon18190
20 Jul 24West Coast Eagles18172
13 Jul 24Adelaide Crows4006
7 Jul 24Sydney Swans7015
30 Jun 24Port Adelaide9033
14 Jun 24Brisbane Lions8240
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -200 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Mitch Owens (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mitch Owens is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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