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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mitch Owens is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 86%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +12.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 8:36AM UTC
AFL

Mitch Owens

St Kilda

+12.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -286 (1.35)
+12.2% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 26 Jul, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
86.3%
Implied Probability
74.1%
Model Edge
+12.2%
Predicted Value
1.4 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals86.3%—74.1%1.16+12.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Mitch Owens (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-286)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mitch Owens is poised to light up Marvel Stadium as the St Kilda Saints take on the North Melbourne Kangaroos. Owens has been on fire lately, averaging 1.2 goals in his last 5 away games, showcasing a sharp 52.0% goal accuracy. His ability to create scoring opportunities is evident with 1.6 inside 50s per game and 5.4 score involvements on average. Facing North Melbourne, Owens has historically bagged at least one goal in his last 5 matchups, maintaining an impressive overall hit rate of 75%. With the model predicting him to snag 1.4 goals, well above the over 0.5 line, betting on Mitch Owens to split the big sticks is a smart move backed by his recent form and consistent performance against the Kangaroos.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs North MelbourneO 0.5 -286+12.2% edge
60%hit L10 O 0.5
0.4avg goals L5
Away1.2vs North Melbourne1.2Season best3
O 0.560%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)5 / 10 hit
2000110120

Mitch Owens has gone over 0.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.4 goals, best 3). Current line: Over 0.5 at -286, model edge +12.2%.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14.6avg disposals L5
Away12.4vs North Melbourne13Season best18
O 12.550%
O 13.550%
O 14.530%
O 15.530%
O 16.530%
O 17.520%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)avg 11.7 · hi 18 · lo 4
897418181417913

Mitch Owens has gone over 14.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14.6 disposals, best 18).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Mitch Owens (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mitch Owens is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.2% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Sunday 26 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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