Patrick Cripps (Carlton) Over 24.5 Disposals (-147)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Patrick Cripps away from home is a genuinely different beast, and the numbers make a compelling case here. His L5 away disposal average sits at 27.4 — already clearing the 24.5 line with room to spare — and against Geelong specifically he's averaging 29 disposals away and 31.2 across all venues over the same stretch. That's a player who consistently goes bigger against this opponent. The model projects 27.5 disposals, representing an 18.8% edge over the implied 59.5% probability baked into the $1.68 price, which is a meaningful gap worth acting on.
What underpins the volume is the engine room work: 13.6 contested possessions and 334 metres gained per game away in his last five, showing Cripps is winning the ball in traffic and moving it forward. He's cleared 24.5 in five of his last six away games. The model's standard deviation of 3.8 keeps the floor comfortably competitive.