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The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Cripps is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +9.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 12:12PM UTC
AFL

Patrick Cripps

Carlton

+9.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 22.5 -256 (1.39)
+9.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 22°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
81.4%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+9.5%
Predicted Value
26.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.4%—71.9%1.23+9.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Patrick Cripps (Carlton) Over 22.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to midfield dominance and sheer work rate, Patrick Cripps is a name that resonates through the AFL landscape. In his last five away clashes, Cripps has been a statistical powerhouse, averaging an impressive 28.6 disposals per game. Facing St Kilda, a team he's historically performed well against, with a 25.3 disposal average in their past encounters, the stage is set for Cripps to shine. His recent form includes an 8-game streak of surpassing the 22.5 disposal mark, showcasing his consistency and hunger for possession. With an efficient disposal rate of 57.8% and a knack for gaining crucial metres, Cripps is primed to lead the Blues' charge at Marvel Stadium. Backing Cripps to surpass 22.5 disposals against St Kilda is not just a bet; it's a calculated investment in a player at the peak of his powers.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs St Kilda SaintsO 23.5 -175
70%hit L10 O 23.5
24.8avg disposals L5
Away28.6vs St Kilda25.6Season best41
O 21.580%
O 22.580%
O 23.570%
O 24.570%
O 25.560%
O 26.560%
Game log vs line (O 23.5)10 / 10 hit
40332829253025353031

Patrick Cripps has gone over 23.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 24.8 disposals, best 41). Current line: Over 23.5 at -175.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 0.5
0.8avg goals L5
Away0.8vs St Kilda0.2Season best2
O 0.560%
O 1.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.7 · hi 2 · lo 0
1220010001

Patrick Cripps has gone over 0.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.8 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 23.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 22.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 21.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Patrick Cripps (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Cripps is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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