Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Cripps is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 55%, implied 58%, edge +7.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 1:45PM UTC
AFL
Patrick Cripps
Carlton
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-137 (1.73) · $100→$173
+7.2% Edge
Fremantle Dockers
@
Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 22 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 22°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
65 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 65.0% · the book's price implies 57.8% · gap +7.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 65.0% | 55.0% | 57.8% | 1.82 | +7.2% |
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Patrick Cripps (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-137)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Patrick Cripps kicking at least one goal is a genuinely solid play here, with the model projecting 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5 and a 7.2% edge over the implied probability of 57.8%. The case rests on his home form being the cleaner half of his dataset — averaging 0.6 goals from 1.8 shots at goal across his last five home games, with a 31.7% goal accuracy and 1.0 goals per game specifically against Fremantle at home. That opponent split is the standout figure.
Zoom out and his overall hit rate of 10/16 over the last 16 games (62.5%) already clears the bookmaker's implied probability on its own. He's averaging 1 mark inside 50 and 6.4 score involvements in home games, meaning he's consistently getting into dangerous positions. The current hit streak sitting at zero adds a mild regression-to-mean angle. Reasonable edge at $1.73.
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Season averages (2024)
Patrick Cripps averaged 28.8 disposals, 0.7 goals and 2.6 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Patrick Cripps recorded 31 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 7 Sep 24 | Brisbane Lions | 31 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 25 Aug 24 | St Kilda | 30 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 18 Aug 24 | West Coast Eagles | 35 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Hawthorn | 25 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Collingwood | 30 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 26 Jul 24 | Port Adelaide | 25 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 21 Jul 24 | North Melbourne | 29 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Western Bulldogs | 28 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 Jul 24 | GWS GIANTS | 33 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 30 Jun 24 | Richmond | 40 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Cripps is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.2% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 22 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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