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The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Cripps is Over 23.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +8.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:08AM UTC
AFL

Patrick Cripps

Carlton

+8.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 23.5 -208 (1.48)
+8.0% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
75.6%
Implied Probability
67.6%
Model Edge
+8.0%
Predicted Value
26.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.6%—67.6%1.32+8.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Patrick Cripps (Carlton) Over 23.5 Disposals (-208)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Patrick Cripps is a prime target for the Over 23.5 disposals against Collingwood. Cripps has been a workhorse in recent away games, averaging a whopping 29 disposals over his last five outings. His ability to find the footy in contested situations (14.2 contested possessions avg) and distribute it efficiently (60.7% disposal efficiency avg) makes him a key figure in Carlton's midfield battle. His past performances against Collingwood have also been solid, with a 22.8 disposals average in their last five encounters. With his current form showing consistency and a penchant for impacting the game, Cripps is poised to surpass the 23.5 disposals line. Backing Cripps to rack up the possessions and drive Carlton forward could be a smart move for punters looking to capitalize on his impact in this crucial clash at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs CollingwoodO 23.5 -208+8.0% edge
70%hit L10 O 23.5
26.6avg disposals L5
Away29vs Collingwood23.6Season best41
O 21.580%
O 22.580%
O 23.570%
O 24.570%
O 25.560%
O 26.560%
Game log vs line (O 23.5)10 / 10 hit
40332829253025353031

Patrick Cripps has gone over 23.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 26.6 disposals, best 41). Current line: Over 23.5 at -208, model edge +8.0%.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 0.5
0.4avg goals L5
Away0.6vs Collingwood0.4Season best2
O 0.570%
O 1.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.7 · hi 2 · lo 0
1220010001

Patrick Cripps has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.4 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 17.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
29 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals 26.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
05 Mar 26 Carlton Blues @ Sydney Swans Disposals 25.5 Under -118 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Patrick Cripps (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Cripps is Over 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.0% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies on Saturday 18 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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