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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Parish is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +10.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 10:14AM UTC
AFL

Darcy Parish

Essendon

+10.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -588 (1.17)
+10.3% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 6:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.8%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+10.3%
Predicted Value
26.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals95.8%—85.5%1.04+10.3%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Parish (Essendon) Over 17.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Essendon's midfield maestro, Darcy Parish, the numbers paint a compelling picture for backing him to hit Over 17.5 disposals against the GWS Giants. Over his last five home games, Parish has been a possession magnet, averaging a stellar 23.2 disposals. His recent form against the Giants has been even more impressive, with an average of 24.4 disposals. With a model predicting him to notch up 26 disposals and boasting a solid 70.7% disposal efficiency at home, Parish is primed to be a central figure in the Bombers' engine room once again. Backed by his impressive hit rates and consistent performance, Parish is set to deliver another standout display, making the Over 17.5 disposals a solid bet for this clash at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
24.8avg disposals recent
Season best39
Disposals last 10avg 24.8 · hi 36 · lo 13
22232536161334272626

Darcy Parish has a disposals high of 39 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 19.5 Over -263 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 18.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 17.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Parish (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Parish is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.3% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 19 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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