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AFL

Darcy Parish

Essendon

Value call

Darcy Parish (Essendon) has one live pick today: over 19.5 disposals that pays $141 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
91 in 100
Predicted
26.0 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 90.6% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +19.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 4:40 PM AEST
Darcy Parish
over 19.5 disposals
Disposals Over 19.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
Value call
HIGHWins about 91 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.10 Odds-244
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Parish is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 91 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 91%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:05PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals90.6%—70.9%1.10+19.7%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Parish (Essendon) Over 19.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for overs in disposals, Darcy Parish stands out like a shining star under the Marvel Stadium lights. With a model prediction of 26 disposals, a solid 70.7% disposal efficiency, and an average of 23.2 disposals over his last five home games, Parish is primed to take charge in the midfield against the GWS Giants. In his recent matchups against the Giants, Parish has consistently hit an average of 20.3 disposals at home and 24.4 overall. His ability to find space, move the ball efficiently, and rack up the meters gained (313.6 on average in his last five home games) showcases his impact on the field. With a streaky home hit rate of 17/20 and an overall hit rate of 16/20, Parish's form is on the rise. Expect him to dominate the possession game and comfortably surpass the 19.5 disposals line in this crucial clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Parish averaged 24.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

24.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.6
Marks
4.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Darcy Parish recorded 26 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions26064
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans26064
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS27054
4 Aug 24Fremantle34062
27 Jul 24St Kilda13016
11 May 24GWS GIANTS16033
4 May 24West Coast Eagles360115
25 Apr 24Collingwood25165
19 Apr 24Adelaide Crows23143
12 Apr 24Western Bulldogs22015
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 16.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Parish (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Parish is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 19 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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