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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Parish is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 96 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 96%, implied 85%, edge +10.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 3:34PM UTC
AFL

Darcy Parish

Essendon

+10.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+10.3% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 6:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
96 in 100
Predicted
26.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 95.8% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +10.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals95.8%—85.5%1.04+10.3%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Parish (Essendon) Over 17.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Essendon's midfield maestro, Darcy Parish, the numbers paint a compelling picture for backing him to hit Over 17.5 disposals against the GWS Giants. Over his last five home games, Parish has been a possession magnet, averaging a stellar 23.2 disposals. His recent form against the Giants has been even more impressive, with an average of 24.4 disposals. With a model predicting him to notch up 26 disposals and boasting a solid 70.7% disposal efficiency at home, Parish is primed to be a central figure in the Bombers' engine room once again. Backed by his impressive hit rates and consistent performance, Parish is set to deliver another standout display, making the Over 17.5 disposals a solid bet for this clash at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Parish averaged 24.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

24.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.6
Marks
4.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Darcy Parish recorded 26 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions26064
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans26064
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS27054
4 Aug 24Fremantle34062
27 Jul 24St Kilda13016
11 May 24GWS GIANTS16033
4 May 24West Coast Eagles360115
25 Apr 24Collingwood25165
19 Apr 24Adelaide Crows23143
12 Apr 24Western Bulldogs22015
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 16.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Parish (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Parish is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.3% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 19 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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