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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Parish is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 83%, for a model edge of +12.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:04AM UTC
AFL

Darcy Parish

Essendon

+12.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -500 (1.20)
+12.4% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 6:40AM
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Model Probability
95.8%
Implied Probability
83.3%
Model Edge
+12.4%
Predicted Value
26.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals95.8%—83.3%1.04+12.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Darcy Parish (Essendon) Over 17.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, it's all about finding that sweet spot where stats meet opportunity, and Darcy Parish seems to be sitting right in that zone. The Essendon Bombers' midfield maestro has been on a tear lately, averaging 23.2 disposals over his last five home games. Facing off against the Greater Western Sydney Giants at Marvel Stadium, Parish has a history of stepping up, with a solid average of 20.3 disposals in his last five matchups against them. With a line set at 17.5 disposals, Parish's recent form, combined with his consistency against the Giants, makes the Over a tantalizing prospect. His ability to find the footy in contested situations and distribute it effectively sets him up for a big game. So, when it comes to this Sunday showdown, all signs point to Parish being the man to back to rack up the possessions and help you snag a win on the 'Player Disposals Over' market.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs GWS GIANTSO 19.5 -256+18.7% edge
80%hit L10 O 19.5
25avg disposals L5
Home23.2vs GWS GIANTS24.4Season best39
O 17.580%
O 18.580%
O 19.580%
O 20.580%
O 21.580%
O 22.580%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)8 / 10 hit
22232536161334272626

Darcy Parish has gone over 19.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 25 disposals, best 39). Current line: Over 19.5 at -256, model edge +18.7%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Darcy Parish (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Parish is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.4% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 19 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.