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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jordan De Goey is Under 18.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 67%, versus the book's implied 50%, for a model edge of +17.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
AFL

Jordan De Goey

Collingwood

+17.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 18.5 +100 (2.00)
+17.1% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ St Kilda Saints
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 8 Mar, 8:20AM
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Model Probability
67.1%
Implied Probability
50.0%
Model Edge
+17.1%
Predicted Value
16.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals67.1%50.0%1.49+17.1%

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AI Analysis

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Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) Under 18.5 Disposals (+100)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Jordan De Goey's recent form, it's clear he's been a pivotal cog in the Collingwood machine. However, as the Magpies travel to face St Kilda at the hallowed MCG, De Goey's disposals have been hovering around the 15.8 mark over his last five away games. While he's a genuine game-changer, his average of 15.8 disposals falls slightly short of the 18.5 line set by sportsbet. St Kilda has also been historically successful in limiting his output to around 13 disposals in their previous encounters. With De Goey's recent away game stats and his historical performance against the Saints in mind, backing him to go under 18.5 disposals seems like a sound bet with a solid data-driven rationale.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
21.7avg disposals recent
Season best34
Disposals last 10avg 21.7 · hi 31 · lo 12
18312723262119241612

Jordan De Goey has a disposals high of 34 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.9avg goals recent
Season best2
Goals last 10avg 0.9 · hi 2 · lo 0
0100220112

Jordan De Goey has a goals high of 2 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jordan De Goey is Under 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.1% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 8 March at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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