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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jordan De Goey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 63%, implied 68%, edge +6.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 8:47PM UTC
AFL

Jordan De Goey

Collingwood

+6.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -213 (1.47) · $100→$147
+6.9% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
1.3 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.9% · the book's price implies 68.0% · gap +6.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals74.9%62.7%68.0%1.60+6.9%

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AI Analysis

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Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Goals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Jordan De Goey's recent form, it's clear he's been knocking on the door of goal-scoring opportunities. Despite averaging 0.4 goals in his last 5 away games, his shot accuracy sits at 9.0%, indicating he's getting looks but just falling short. Facing off against the Western Bulldogs, a team he's notched 0.7 goals per game against in his last 5 matchups, De Goey could capitalize on his chances. With an average of 2 shots on goal per game away from home, his hunger to snag a goal is evident. Additionally, his 8.2 score involvements per game suggest he's actively influencing Collingwood's attacking moves. While his overall goal average stands at 0.8 in his last 5 games, the numbers point towards De Goey breaking through and slotting one through the big sticks this time around. Betting on him to score over 0.5 goals seems like a solid play for this clash at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Jordan De Goey averaged 20.8 disposals, 0.8 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.

20.8
Disposals
0.8
Goals
3.8
Marks
3.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (3 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Jordan De Goey recorded 12 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
3 Aug 24Carlton12232
20 Jul 24Hawthorn16103
12 Jul 24Geelong Cats24143
5 Jul 24Essendon19055
29 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS21244
18 May 24Adelaide Crows26261
25 Apr 24Essendon23046
20 Apr 24Port Adelaide27057
7 Apr 24Hawthorn31167
28 Mar 24Brisbane Lions18013
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Kicks 9.5 Over -313 ✗ MISS
21 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Kicks 9.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
21 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals Pending
21 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals Pending
15 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals Pending

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About This Player

Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jordan De Goey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.9% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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