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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Willem Drew is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 89%, implied 85%, edge +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 27, 11:33AM UTC
AFL

Willem Drew

Port Adelaide

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+4.0% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
19.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 89.4% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +4.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals89.4%85.5%1.12+4.0%

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AI Analysis

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Willem Drew (Port Adelaide) Over 13.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Willem Drew is an absolute workhorse in the midfield, consistently churning out numbers that make the opposition sweat. In his last five away games, he's been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 20.4 possessions per game. Facing off against the Sydney Swans, who he's historically dominated with an average of 18.4 disposals in their encounters, Drew is poised to shine. His recent form is red hot, boasting a stellar 69.7% disposal efficiency and a knack for racking up intercepts and contested possessions. With a current hit streak of 7 away games and 4 overall, Drew is in the form of his life and is primed to not just meet but exceed that 13.5 disposal line. Betting on Drew to go over is not just a punt; it's a calculated move backed by his undeniable impact on the field.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Willem Drew averaged 19.3 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.6 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

19.3
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.6
Marks
6.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Willem Drew recorded 17 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
20 Sep 24Sydney Swans17043
13 Sep 24Hawthorn18018
5 Sep 24Geelong Cats21043
25 Aug 24Fremantle12118
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows160311
10 Aug 24Melbourne16025
3 Aug 24Sydney Swans32066
26 Jul 24Carlton220312
20 Jul 24Richmond23026
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS20067
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 13.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 14.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 15.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Willem Drew (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Willem Drew is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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