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The latest Bet Better model pick for Willem Drew is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 80%, versus the book's implied 80%, for a model edge of +0.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 18, 6:47AM UTC
AFL

Willem Drew

Port Adelaide

+0.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -400 (1.25)
+0.1% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
80.1%
Implied Probability
80.0%
Model Edge
+0.1%
Predicted Value
19.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals80.1%—80.0%1.25+0.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Willem Drew (Port Adelaide) Over 15.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Willem Drew, the unsung hero of Port Adelaide, is primed to shine at Adelaide Oval against the Fremantle Dockers. Drew's recent form at home boasts an average of 15.2 disposals per game, comfortably clearing the 15.5 line. His work rate is evident in his 9.4 kicks and 5.8 handballs per game, showcasing his ability to impact the contest both offensively and defensively. With an impressive 67.3% disposal efficiency, Drew is not just racking up numbers but doing so with precision. Facing Fremantle, against whom he averages 17.2 disposals, Drew is set to continue his midfield dominance. Backing Drew to surpass 15.5 disposals is not just a statistical play; it's a reflection of his integral role in Port's engine room.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
17.2avg disposals L5
Home15.2vs Fremantle17.2Season best32
O 15.560%
O 16.560%
O 17.530%
O 18.530%
O 19.530%
O 20.520%
Game log vs line (O 17.5)avg 19.7 · hi 32 · lo 12
20232232161612211817

Willem Drew has gone over 17.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.2 disposals, best 32).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 13.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 15.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Willem Drew (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Willem Drew is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide Power on Saturday 18 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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