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The latest Bet Better model pick for Willem Drew is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 7, 7:59AM UTC
AFL

Willem Drew

Port Adelaide

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -588 (1.17)
+4.0% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.4%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+4.0%
Predicted Value
19.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals89.4%—85.5%1.12+4.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Willem Drew (Port Adelaide) Over 13.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Willem Drew is locked in for a standout performance on the road against the Sydney Swans. His recent form is nothing short of impressive, averaging 20.4 disposals in his last five away games. Drew's ability to find the footy in contested situations, coupled with a stellar disposalefficiency of 69.7%, makes him a reliable asset in the midfield battle. With an average of 11.6 kicks and 8.8 handballs per game away, he's instrumental in driving Port Adelaide's attack forward. Drew's consistency is key, boasting a current hit streak of 7 in away games and 4 overall. Expect him to surpass the 13.5 disposal line comfortably and be a pivotal figure in Port Adelaide's quest for victory at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Sydney SwansO 16.5 -164
70%hit L10 O 16.5
16.2avg disposals L5
Away20.4vs Sydney Swans18.4Season best32
O 14.580%
O 15.570%
O 16.570%
O 17.520%
O 18.520%
O 19.510%
Game log vs line (O 16.5)7 / 10 hit
20232232161612211817

Willem Drew has gone over 16.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 16.2 disposals, best 32). Current line: Over 16.5 at -164.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 13.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 14.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 15.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Willem Drew (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Willem Drew is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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