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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jase Burgoyne is Under 21.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 68%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +15.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 10:15PM UTC
AFL

Jase Burgoyne

Port Adelaide

+15.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 21.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
+15.0% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sun 26 Jul, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
68.4%
Implied Probability
53.5%
Model Edge
+15.0%
Predicted Value
19.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals68.4%53.5%1.46+15.0%

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AI Analysis

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Jase Burgoyne (Port Adelaide) Under 21.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jase Burgoyne, the young gun from Port Adelaide, heads to the Gabba looking to make his mark against the Brisbane Lions. While his recent form has been solid, with an average of 21.8 disposals in his last five away games, the data suggests a shift may be on the horizon. Facing the Lions, Burgoyne has historically averaged 15 disposals against them in away games, falling below the 21.5 line. With his contested possessions at 6.6 and turnovers at 5.2 in away matches, there's a chance he may struggle to reach the line. Considering his current hit streak and hit rate, the under on Burgoyne's disposals could be a smart play in this clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
20.2avg disposals recent
Season best27
Disposals last 10avg 20.2 · hi 25 · lo 14
17242218212220142519

Jase Burgoyne has a disposals high of 27 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 21.5 Under -115 ✗ MISS
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 15.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Jase Burgoyne (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jase Burgoyne is Under 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.0% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions on Sunday 26 July at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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