Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jase Burgoyne is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +1.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC
AFL

Jase Burgoyne

Port Adelaide

+1.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -588 (1.17)
+1.9% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul, 6:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
87.4%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+1.9%
Predicted Value
21.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.4%—85.5%1.14+1.9%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jase Burgoyne (Port Adelaide) Over 15.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Jase Burgoyne is the man to watch in this Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos clash at Adelaide Oval. With a model predicting him to hit an average of 21.2 disposals per game and a recent history of strong performances, Burgoyne is primed to shine on his home turf. Over his last five home games, Burgoyne has been a midfield maestro, averaging 21 disposals, including 11.8 kicks and 9.2 handballs. Facing North Melbourne, a team he already averages 22 disposals against, Burgoyne's form looks set to continue. Factor in his impressive contested possession average of 7.8 and a solid disposal efficiency of 71.9%, and the Over 15.5 disposals line seems like a safe bet. Burgoyne's recent consistency, coupled with his knack for finding the footy, makes him a reliable option to snag this prop bet.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
20.2avg disposals recent
Season best27
Disposals last 10avg 20.2 · hi 25 · lo 14
17242218212220142519

Jase Burgoyne has a disposals high of 27 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 15.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Jase Burgoyne (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jase Burgoyne is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.9% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power on Sunday 5 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks