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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jase Burgoyne is Under 21.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 68 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 68%, implied 53%, edge +15.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 2:44AM UTC
AFL

Jase Burgoyne

Port Adelaide

+15.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 21.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
+15.0% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sun 26 Jul, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
68 in 100
Predicted
19.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 68.4% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +15.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals68.4%53.5%1.46+15.0%

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AI Analysis

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Jase Burgoyne (Port Adelaide) Under 21.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jase Burgoyne, the young gun from Port Adelaide, heads to the Gabba looking to make his mark against the Brisbane Lions. While his recent form has been solid, with an average of 21.8 disposals in his last five away games, the data suggests a shift may be on the horizon. Facing the Lions, Burgoyne has historically averaged 15 disposals against them in away games, falling below the 21.5 line. With his contested possessions at 6.6 and turnovers at 5.2 in away matches, there's a chance he may struggle to reach the line. Considering his current hit streak and hit rate, the under on Burgoyne's disposals could be a smart play in this clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jase Burgoyne averaged 18.1 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

18.1
Disposals
0.2
Goals
5.0
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jase Burgoyne recorded 19 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
20 Sep 24Sydney Swans19144
13 Sep 24Hawthorn25192
5 Sep 24Geelong Cats14124
25 Aug 24Fremantle20054
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows22174
10 Aug 24Melbourne21075
3 Aug 24Sydney Swans18062
26 Jul 24Carlton22055
20 Jul 24Richmond24047
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS17083
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jase Burgoyne (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jase Burgoyne is Under 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.0% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions on Sunday 26 July at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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