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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ollie Wines is Under 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +19.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:44PM UTC
AFL

Ollie Wines

Port Adelaide

+19.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -119 (1.84) · $100→$184
+19.7% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
74.1%
Implied Probability
54.3%
Model Edge
+19.7%
Predicted Value
19.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.1%54.3%1.35+19.7%

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AI Analysis

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Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) Under 22.5 Disposals (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at Ollie Wines' recent form away from home, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure for Port Adelaide, consistently racking up disposals. However, facing the Sydney Swans at the SCG presents a different challenge. In his last five away games, Wines has averaged 22.2 disposals, just under the line of 22.5. His disposal efficiency has been solid at 74.9%, but the Swans have been tough opponents for him historically, limiting him to an average of 15 disposals in their previous encounters. With the model predicting him to hit around 19.3 disposals, there's a 19.7% edge in favor of the under. Considering his recent struggles against the Swans and the potential for a tight contest, Wines may find it challenging to surpass the 22.5 mark in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
24.8avg disposals recent
Season best33
Disposals last 10avg 24.8 · hi 32 · lo 18
21322531182631232318

Ollie Wines has a disposals high of 33 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 22.5 Under -119 ✗ MISS
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 22.5 Under -122 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 22.5 Over -164 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ollie Wines is Under 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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