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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ollie Wines is Under 22.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 54%, edge +19.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 9:11PM UTC
AFL

Ollie Wines

Port Adelaide

+19.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -119 (1.84) · $100→$184
+19.7% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
19.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.1% · the book's price implies 54.3% · gap +19.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.1%54.3%1.35+19.7%

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AI Analysis

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Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) Under 22.5 Disposals (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at Ollie Wines' recent form away from home, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure for Port Adelaide, consistently racking up disposals. However, facing the Sydney Swans at the SCG presents a different challenge. In his last five away games, Wines has averaged 22.2 disposals, just under the line of 22.5. His disposal efficiency has been solid at 74.9%, but the Swans have been tough opponents for him historically, limiting him to an average of 15 disposals in their previous encounters. With the model predicting him to hit around 19.3 disposals, there's a 19.7% edge in favor of the under. Considering his recent struggles against the Swans and the potential for a tight contest, Wines may find it challenging to surpass the 22.5 mark in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Ollie Wines averaged 23.5 disposals, 0.3 goals and 4.1 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

23.5
Disposals
0.3
Goals
4.1
Marks
4.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Ollie Wines recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
20 Sep 24Sydney Swans18052
13 Sep 24Hawthorn230210
5 Sep 24Geelong Cats23056
25 Aug 24Fremantle31032
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows26068
10 Aug 24Melbourne18024
3 Aug 24Sydney Swans31153
26 Jul 24Carlton250210
20 Jul 24Richmond32082
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS21163
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ollie Wines is Under 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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