Josh Ward (Hawthorn) Over 20.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Josh Ward at home is the key angle here. His L5 home games average sits at 23.2 disposals — 2.7 clear of this 20.5 line — and he's cleared it in 9 of his last 11 home appearances, an 82% hit rate that gives real confidence in the model's projection of 23.8. That 18.7% edge against implied odds of 53.2% is substantial and worth acting on at $1.88. The underlying numbers reinforce it. At the MCG he's averaging 309.4 metres gained across those five home games, combining 10.8 kicks and 12.4 handballs with 77.5% disposal efficiency — a player who moves the ball cleanly and gets used often. Brisbane is the one caveat; his L5 record against the Lions at home averages just 20, sitting right on the line. But the model still lands at 23.8, and the broader home form makes Ward a genuine edge over 20.5.

Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Impey's home form makes this line look soft. Over his last five home games he's averaging 28.4 disposals — nearly nine touches above the 19.5 mark — built on a foundation of 19.8 kicks and 8.6 handballs per game, with 574.8 metres gained suggesting he's genuinely influencing play rather than padding stats in quiet patches. That home hit rate of 13/20 (65%) over his last 20 home games gives the edge real structural backing, and the model projects 22.8 disposals here, implying an 18.6% edge over the book's implied probability of 52.9%. The Lions matchup isn't a concern either — Impey averages 21 disposals against Brisbane at home across his last five meetings. The $1.89 available at Sportsbet looks generous given how consistently he elevates at the MCG. The SD of 5.7 means variance exists, but the central case is comfortably clear of the line.

Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

McKenna has been a reliable goal threat away from home this season, and the numbers make a compelling case to back him over 0.5 here. His L5 away games average of 1.6 goals per game is well clear of the line, and he's converting at a sharp 66% accuracy on 2.4 shots at goal — that's a player who gets into the right spots and finishes. The model projects 1.1 goals against a 53.8% implied probability baked into the $1.86 price, generating a 17.7% edge that's hard to ignore. The hit rate reinforces the projection: McKenna has kicked at least one goal in 8 of his last 9 away games, he's on a two-game away hit streak, and has scored in three straight overall. The L5 vs Hawthorn numbers are thin on sample, but his away-specific form is the story — this looks like a genuine edge worth taking.

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