St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks: Expert MLB Betting Guide

As the Cardinals gear up to face the Cubs, all eyes will be on Carson Kelly, especially when it comes to runs scored. While he's had his moments at the plate, this matchup poses a challenge. The Cubs' pitching staff has been nothing short of formidable lately, sporting a stingy 3.40 ERA over their last ten games. That includes some impressive strikeout rates, which could stifle Kelly’s ability to cross home plate. Let’s not overlook the Cardinals’ recent struggles with runners in scoring positions, failing to capitalize on opportunities, making it hard for any single player to rack up runs. With Kelly's recent form showing fewer multi-run games, taking the under on 1.5 runs scored feels like a savvy play. With a high implied probability of 80%, the trend points toward a quiet night for Kelly against a tough Cubs lineup.

Michael Busch (NA) Under 0.5 Walks (-588)

As the Cardinals gear up to face the Cubs, all eyes will be on Michael Busch, particularly in the context of his ability to draw walks. Recent trends show Busch has been struggling at the plate, recording a mere handful of walks in his last several outings. The Cubs’ pitching staff, especially their starter for this matchup, has been adept at keeping hitters off base, boasting one of the lower walk rates in the league. Moreover, Busch's approach has shifted lately; he’s become more aggressive, swinging early in counts rather than waiting for his pitch. With an implied probability of 85.5% for him not walking tonight, it’s hard to overlook the value in betting the ‘Under’ on his walk total. The dynamics of Busch's current form against a disciplined Cubs pitching staff paint a convincing picture for this wager. Expect him to stay aggressive, likely leading to a walk-free evening.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs : Under 8.5 Total Runs (+109)

As the St. Louis Cardinals host their arch-rivals, the Chicago Cubs, on July 28, the spotlight is set to shine on two pitchers looking to dominate the mound. The Cardinals' ace has been a fortress at home, consistently limiting runs and showcasing a whip under 1.10 in his last five starts. Meanwhile, the Cubs have struggled against left-handed pitching, scoring a meager 3.5 runs per game over their last ten outings, making them particularly vulnerable. Both teams have also shown a penchant for tight contests lately, with six of their last ten meetings finishing under the total. With a projected total of 7.83 runs, it’s hard to see this game breaking out into a scoring frenzy. Given the current trends and the impressive form of the pitchers, betting on the under seems not just prudent but almost inevitable. Expect a battle on the mound, with runs at a premium.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs : Under 9 Total Runs (-122)

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago Cubs, the matchup is shaping up to be a classic pitchers' duel. Both teams are trending toward the under, with the Cardinals’ offense struggling to find consistency, averaging just 4.1 runs per game in their last ten outings. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ pitching staff has quietly turned a corner, allowing only 3.6 runs per game during that span, highlighting their ability to stifle opposing bats. With the wind likely blowing in at Busch Stadium, the stage is set for a low-scoring affair. Historical trends also favor the under, especially considering both teams' recent clashes have often stayed below this total. With the model predicting just shy of eight runs, the under 9 feels like a prudent play, considering the current momentum and matchup dynamics. Expect a tightly contested game where runs will be at a premium.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs : Under 9 Total Runs (-125)

As the Cardinals and Cubs clash at Busch Stadium, the under on total runs is looking appealing. Both teams have shown a tendency to struggle offensively recently, with St. Louis managing just a modest 4.1 runs per game over the last couple of weeks. Meanwhile, Chicago’s lineup has been erratic, often failing to capitalize on scoring opportunities, averaging only 3.9 runs during that same stretch. On the mound, the Cardinals’ starter is in excellent form, boasting a sub-3.50 ERA and a solid strikeout rate that keeps hitters off-balance. The Cubs’ pitcher, while not as dominant, has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly against left-handed hitters, which could stifle St. Louis’s lineup. With both bullpens tightening up lately, a low-scoring game feels inevitable. Given the recent trends and the models predicting only about 7.8 total runs, betting the under here seems like a savvy play.