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Model picks & player props
NCAAB
Fri 13 Nov 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Ball State Cardinals
1-2 · 0-1 awayLLW
VS
SMU Mustangs
3-0 · 3-0 at homeWWW
Our model's predicted score: SMU Mustangs 75.9 – Ball State Cardinals 70.9

Ball State Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs Prediction & Picks · Fri 13 Nov

Our model graded 20 markets for Ball State Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs and backs Ball State Cardinals 12.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $450.

20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Ball State Cardinals
with a 12.5-point head start
Ball State Cardinals 12.5 Alt Spread
You bet$10 If it wins$45.00Best price+350
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win47.8%
The price says20.8%

The model graded 20 markets for Ball State Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs (NCAAB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $450 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 13 Nov 2026, 9:00 PM ET.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alt Spread Ball State Cardinals 12.5 Lean48% chance +350
Alt Spread Members only Lean49% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
SMU Mustangs are the model's favourite to beat Ball State Cardinals, with a 64% chance to win. Predicted score: SMU Mustangs 75.9 – Ball State Cardinals 70.9. Kick-off Fri 13 Nov, 9:00 PM ET. Best bet: Ball State Cardinals 12.5 at +350.
How they've been scoring this season
Ball State CardinalsSMU Mustangs
Won-lost1-23-0
Points scored per game70.092.7
Points allowed per game66.768.3
On the road / at home0-1 away3-0 at home
Last 5 gamesLLWWWW
Their games average 148.8 total points this season.
From the 3 Ball State Cardinals and 3 SMU Mustangs games on our books this season.
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How the price moved

When prices opened: SMU Mustangs more than 9 in 10 to win. Now: more than 9 in 10. About where it opened.

Best price and how much the bookies keep

Who wins
TeamMarket's chanceFair priceBest price
Cardinalsabout 1 in 24$23.77 (+2277)$29.00 (+2800)
SMU Mustangsmore than 9 in 10$1.04 (-2500)$1.01 (-10000)

On this game the bookies keep about $3.40 of every $100 bet on who wins, going by the 8 books we check.

All NCAAB odds this week →

What matters in this game

Rest, form and schedule
  • SMU Mustangs won 3 straight games up to Tuesday 10 November.
  • On Monday, Ball State Cardinals beat Brescia Bearcats 89-64 at home. On Tuesday, SMU Mustangs beat Prairie View A&M Panthers 98-63 at home.
  • Home teams won 627 of 949 college basketball games last season, about 2 in 3. See the study

From this season's final scores.

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alt Spread
Ball State Cardinals
+12.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ball State CardinalsAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Ball State Cardinals

Player availability is not tracked for NCAAB on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

SMU Mustangs

Player availability is not tracked for NCAAB on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Ball State Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and player availability isn't tracked for NCAAB on this page.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 13 Nov

SMU Mustangs vs Ball State Cardinals Prediction & Picks

On Saturday 14 November 2026, SMU Mustangs play Ball State Cardinals in college basketball. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Ball State Cardinals +20.5 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Ball State Cardinals +20.5 on the Line (+110)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Saturday 14 November 2026, SMU Mustangs host Ball State Cardinals in college basketball. The bet we are looking at is Ball State Cardinals 20.5 Point Spread. On this line Ball State Cardinals start with 20.5 points in hand, so they can lose by less than that and this still wins. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Under 152.5 Total Points (+110)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Saturday 14 November 2026, SMU Mustangs host Ball State Cardinals in college basketball. The bet we are looking at is Under 152.5 Total Points. This wins if the two sides score fewer than 152.5 points between them. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads SMU Mustangs v Ball State Cardinals. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · Read the full preview · Every pick for that day

Ball State Cardinals @ SMU Mustangs — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Ball State Cardinals at SMU Mustangs — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Ball State Cardinals @ SMU Mustangs — model preview

SMU Mustangs v Ball State Cardinals, 14 November 2026. Top of the list: Ball State Cardinals +20.5 on the Line. Our model likes 2 bets in this game.

On Saturday 14 November 2026, SMU Mustangs play Ball State Cardinals in college basketball. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Ball State Cardinals +20.5 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Ball State Cardinals +20.5 on the Line (+110)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Saturday 14 November 2026, SMU Mustangs host Ball State Cardinals in college basketball. The bet we are looking at is Ball State Cardinals 20.5 Point Spread. On this line Ball State Cardinals start with 20.5 points in hand, so they can lose by less than that and this still wins. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. That price was showing at Bovada. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Ball State Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs in the NCAAB. You may also see this matchup written as Cardinals vs Mustangs, or as Mustangs vs Cardinals. The next scheduled game is Friday 13 November 2026. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NCAAB betting strategy for this matchup.

Ball State Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs: game facts

When it starts and how they have been going

Ball State Cardinals play SMU Mustangs on Friday 13 November 2026. It starts at 9:00 PM ET. It is a college basketball game.

Ball State Cardinals: last 5 results

  1. 6 Nov 2026Lostvs Indiana State Sycamores 66-69
  2. 2 Nov 2026Lostat Georgia Southern Eagles 55-67
  3. 6 Mar 2026Wonvs Central Michigan Chippewas 85-69
  4. 3 Mar 2026Wonat Western Michigan Broncos 74-71
  5. 28 Feb 2026Wonat Northern Illinois Huskies 79-43

SMU Mustangs: last 5 results

  1. 5 Nov 2026Wonvs VMI Keydets 95-70
  2. 2 Nov 2026Wonvs Southern Jaguars 85-72
  3. 18 Mar 2026Lostvs Miami (OH) RedHawks 79-89
  4. 11 Mar 2026Lostat Louisville Cardinals 58-62
  5. 10 Mar 2026Wonvs Syracuse Orange 86-69

Quick answers

When is Ball State Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs? Ball State Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs is on Friday 13 November 2026. It starts at 9:00 PM ET.

How have Ball State Cardinals and SMU Mustangs done lately? Ball State Cardinals won 3 and lost 2 of the last 5 results we hold. SMU Mustangs won 3 and lost 2 of the last 5 results we hold.

From the final scores we hold. Newest game first.

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