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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 13, 10:34AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 10:05PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 9.5 (Total Runs)
The model graded 20 markets for New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $276 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 60.2%, fair odds 1.66, book price +176, model edge +24.0%. Tip-off Sat 25 Jul 2026, 10:05PM at Citizens Bank Park.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
New York Yankees -1.5 · $100 returned $240

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 619 of 1,194 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 13
Under 6.5
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $343
Our call on this game: 2 picks on tonight's board · logged before tip-offSee tonight's picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
12.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Cody Bellinger LFOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut

Probable pitcher

Will Warren SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Zack Wheeler SP
Availability updated Aug 12, 11:00PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
1.7runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 4 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–7STLAway
L0–2STLAway
W6–5STLAway
W7–6TORHome
L5–7TORHome
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–5SEAHome
W4–1SEAHome
L1–2ATLHome
W5–4ATLHome
W3–2ATLHome

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 4.4 runs per game (3-2) while New York Yankees are at 4.2 (3-2); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 2.8 earned runs per game versus 3.8 for New York Yankees.

4.4
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
4.2
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesNew York Yankees
Runs / game4.44.2
Hits / game6.46.2
Home runs / game1.60.8
Walks drawn / game2.41.2
Batter K / game5.84.8
Earned runs allowed / game2.83.8
Pitching K / game3.07.6
Walks allowed / game2.84.2
L5 record3-23-2

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 1, New York Yankees won 2.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesNew York YankeesWinner
Jul 26114Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 2513New York Yankees
Jul 2401New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Cody Bellinger LFOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Carlos Rodon SPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Deep dive into Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees stats and odds.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees : New York Yankees -1.5 (+140)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Yankees roll into Philadelphia, they've been showcasing an offensive prowess that’s hard to ignore. With a formidable lineup, they’re second in the league for runs scored this season—proof that they're not just getting on base, but driving in those key runs. Meanwhile, the Phillies have struggled to contain the power hitters, ranking near the bottom in ERA against left-handers, which could be a major issue today with the Yankees likely sending a southpaw to the mound. Additionally, the Yankees have been on a tear, winning six of their last seven, while the Phillies have faltered, particularly at home. The Yankees’ ability to put up crooked numbers combined with their recent momentum gives them a clear edge. Betting on the Yankees to cover the -1.5 run line seems like a savvy move; they’re primed to exploit Philly's weaknesses and extend their winning streak. Don’t miss this opportunity to back the Bronx Bombers in style!

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
25 Jul 26 Spread New York Yankees -1.5 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Saturday 25 July 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
New York Yankees 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies11–4Philadelphia Phillies
25 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies1–3New York Yankees
24 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies0–1New York Yankees
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