Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 24, 5:36AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul 2026, 10:45PM
20
Game Picks
3
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 11 (Total Runs)
For New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), model win probability 47.5%, fair odds 2.11, book price +285, model edge +21.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 24 Jul 2026, 10:45PM at Citizens Bank Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
6.5
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every edge — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Unlock the full calibrated board

See the model's calibrated probability, fair odds and edge on every market in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line

Best price right now

Betus
on New York Yankees
Shop gain & value% 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Rafael Marchan CDay-to-day
  • Garrett Stubbs COut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut
Availability updated Jul 23, 2:24AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Amed Rosario CLE Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gabriel Rincones Jr. Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cody Bellinger Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

Get the player, the line, the pick and the edge on every graded prop in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

3 markets live
Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesOver 9.5 +176+24.0% edge
60%over %
10.7proj. runs
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.8Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L53-2O/U8-10

Philadelphia Phillies total runs vs New York Yankees is live with a model 60% read and a +24.0% model edge; proj. runs 10.7.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run line-2.5 +285+15.3% edge
+1.4proj. margin
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.8Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L53-2ATS2-15

Philadelphia Phillies spread vs New York Yankees is live with a model 41% read and a +15.3% model edge; proj. margin +1.4.

MoneylinePhiladelphia Phillies to win-120+11.6% edge
66%model win %
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.8Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L53-2Win rec0-12

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline vs New York Yankees is live with a model 66% read and a +11.6% model edge; L5 record 3-2.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
4.1implied team total
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.8Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.4 runs/gm.

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 4.4 runs per game (3-2) while New York Yankees are at 4.2 (3-2); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 2.8 earned runs per game versus 3.8 for New York Yankees.

4.4
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
4.2
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesNew York Yankees
Runs / game4.44.2
Hits / game6.46.2
Home runs / game1.60.8
Walks drawn / game2.41.2
Batter K / game5.84.8
Earned runs allowed / game2.83.8
Pitching K / game3.07.6
Walks allowed / game2.84.2
L5 record3-23-2

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees stats and odds.</p>

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees : Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-192)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to host the Yankees on July 24, all signs point to a significant edge for Philadelphia. Lately, the Phillies have been riding a wave of momentum, bolstered by a potent offense that’s been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging over five runs per game in their last two weeks. Meanwhile, New York’s pitching staff has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in high-pressure situations, which could spell trouble against a lineup that thrives on capitalizing with runners in scoring position. Looking at the Phillies’ home record, they’ve been nearly untouchable, especially against left-handed pitching, which is a crucial factor when facing a Yankees squad that’s struggled against southpaws. With the combination of a soaring offense and a stout home field advantage, taking the Phillies at -1.5 on the run line feels not just reasonable, but strategic. Expect Philadelphia to pull ahead and cover that number comfortably under the lights.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees : Philadelphia Phillies -1 (+109)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to face the Yankees, there's a strong case for leaning toward Philadelphia on the alternate run line. The Phillies have been riding a wave of momentum, showcasing an explosive offense that's racked up runs at home, making Citizens Bank Park a true fortress. Over the last few weeks, their lineup has been hitting with both power and consistency, which bodes well against a Yankees rotation that has struggled with control. Moreover, the Phillies' pitching staff, particularly at home, has found its groove, boasting a lower ERA that suggests they can stifle opposing hitters. With the Yankees dealing with injuries and inconsistencies in their lineup, this could be a prime opportunity for Philadelphia to capitalize. Look for the Phillies to not just win, but to do so convincingly, making the -1 run line a savvy play to consider as they aim for a statement win against the storied Bronx Bombers.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees : Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-200)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies host the Yankees on July 24, 2026, there's a palpable buzz surrounding the home team, and for good reason. Philadelphia has been on a tear lately, boasting a potent lineup that’s averaging over five runs per game in the last month. Their bats are heating up, with key players stepping up just when it matters most, including a stellar showing against left-handed pitching. On the mound, the Phillies are backed by a reliable ace who has posted a sub-3.00 ERA at home this season, making it tough for opposing hitters to find their rhythm. Meanwhile, the Yankees have struggled to find consistency, especially in away games. Their bullpen has shown cracks, often faltering in high-pressure situations. With the Phillies riding a wave of momentum and the Yankees facing some serious hurdles, taking Philadelphia on the alternate run line of -1.5 feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees : Over 5 Total Runs (-556)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

When the Phillies host the Yankees, expect fireworks on the diamond. Both teams are swinging hot bats lately—Philadelphia's lineup has been racking up runs, averaging over 5.5 runs in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Yankees have also found their groove, with their power hitters lighting up the scoreboard. On the mound, the matchup presents an intriguing contrast. The Phillies’ starter has struggled with consistency, allowing opponents to push across runs with alarming ease. The Yankees, on the other hand, have been relentless against left-handed pitching, making it likely they’ll capitalize on any mistakes. With both offenses clicking and a total set at just 5 runs, it feels like a no-brainer to lean towards the Over. Given the offensive prowess on display and the potential for a high-scoring affair, betting on the Over in this matchup could prove to be a savvy move.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees : Philadelphia Phillies +1 (-189)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to host the Yankees, the vibes in Philadelphia are electric, especially given their strong recent form. Over the past couple of weeks, the Phillies have been raking, boasting a .290 team batting average, which has propelled them to a 6-2 record in their last eight games. On the mound, their ace has been nothing short of dominant lately, striking out over 10 batters per nine innings while maintaining an impressive ERA under 3.00. Conversely, the Yankees have struggled to find consistency, particularly away from Yankee Stadium. With their lineup battling injuries and their pitching staff faltering, they’ve dropped crucial games. The Phillies have not only been winning but doing so convincingly at home. Given their formidable offense and the Yankees’ recent woes, backing the Phillies to cover the alternate run line here feels like a smart move. Expect a spirited Philadelphia victory that could be more comfortable than the scoreline suggests.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 24 July 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 3 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks