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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Our model graded 20 markets for New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies and backs Over 8 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $196.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 10:05PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 8 Total Runs -104

The model graded 20 markets for New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $196 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 25 Jul 2026, 10:05PM at Citizens Bank Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win72.0%
The price says51.0%
Best price-104
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 8 High72% chance -104
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only High61% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot34% chance Members
Total Runs Members only High82% chance Members
Moneyline Members only High66% chance Members
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Members only High66% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies last met on Sat 25 Jul 2026: Philadelphia Phillies won 11-4. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
8
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut

Probable pitcher

Cam Schlittler SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Luis Arraez 2BDay-to-day
  • Jonathan Bowlan RPDay-to-day
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut
Availability updated Oct 6, 12:00AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
3.2runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6ATLAway
W4–3ATLAway
L3–5ATLAway
W7–3TBHome
L1–12TBHome
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L0–1TBAway
W9–2BOSHome
W9–0BOSHome
W6–3BALHome
L2–10BALHome

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 4.4 runs per game (3-2) while New York Yankees are at 4.2 (3-2); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 2.8 earned runs per game versus 3.8 for New York Yankees.

4.4
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
4.2
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesNew York Yankees
Runs / game4.44.2
Hits / game6.46.2
Home runs / game1.60.8
Walks drawn / game2.41.2
Batter K / game5.84.8
Earned runs allowed / game2.83.8
Pitching K / game3.07.6
Walks allowed / game2.84.2
L5 record3-23-2

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 2, New York Yankees won 5.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesNew York YankeesWinner
Jul 26114Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 2513New York Yankees
Jul 2401New York Yankees
Mar 2226New York Yankees
Mar 1464Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 1024New York Yankees
Mar 135New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

11 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Luis Arraez 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Deep dive into Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees stats and odds.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees : New York Yankees -1.5 (+140)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Yankees roll into Philadelphia, they've been showcasing an offensive prowess that’s hard to ignore. With a formidable lineup, they’re second in the league for runs scored this season—proof that they're not just getting on base, but driving in those key runs. Meanwhile, the Phillies have struggled to contain the power hitters, ranking near the bottom in ERA against left-handers, which could be a major issue today with the Yankees likely sending a southpaw to the mound. Additionally, the Yankees have been on a tear, winning six of their last seven, while the Phillies have faltered, particularly at home. The Yankees’ ability to put up crooked numbers combined with their recent momentum gives them a clear edge. Betting on the Yankees to cover the -1.5 run line seems like a savvy move; they’re primed to exploit Philly's weaknesses and extend their winning streak. Don’t miss this opportunity to back the Bronx Bombers in style!

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Saturday 25 July 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies head-to-head record

Final scores · 28 meetings on record
New York Yankees 17–9 across the last 28 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 10.2 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 26 Jul 2026, New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies: the Phillies won 11-4.

DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies11–4Philadelphia Phillies
25 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies1–3New York Yankees
24 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies0–1New York Yankees
22 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees6–2New York Yankees
14 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees4–6Philadelphia Phillies
10 Mar 2026New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies2–4New York Yankees
1 Mar 2026New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies3–5New York Yankees
27 Jul 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees4–3New York Yankees
26 Jul 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees4–9Philadelphia Phillies
25 Jul 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees5–12Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 28 meetings on file.

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