Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Martinez is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +29.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
MLB

Nick Martinez

CIN

+29.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 4.5 -156 (1.64)
+29.6% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr, 10:45PM
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs TB @ TOR
updated Jul 20, 11:07PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
90.6%
Implied Probability
61.0%
Model Edge
+29.6%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts90.6%61.0%1.10+29.6%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Nick Martinez (CIN) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-156)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pirates gear up to face the Rays, all eyes will be on Nick Martinez's strikeout potential. While Martinez has shown flashes of brilliance, his recent outings indicate that he struggles to rack up K's against disciplined lineups like Tampa Bay's. The Rays boast one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, consistently making contact and capitalizing on pitches. In his last few starts, Martinez has averaged just over two strikeouts per game, a stark contrast to the 4.5 line set for this matchup. With Tampa’s patience at the plate and Martinez’s tendency to pitch to contact, the under feels like a wise play here. The Pirates' offense might not give him enough run support either, potentially keeping him on a shorter leash. All signs point to a night where Martinez's strikeout numbers fall short, making the under a compelling choice in this intriguing duel.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak3L2055%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.540%

Nick Martinez MLB strikeouts: cleared over 3.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 5.530%
O 6.520%

Nick Martinez MLB hits allowedseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.520%

Nick Martinez MLB walksseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
3.2avg earned runs · L5

Nick Martinez MLB earned runs: averaging 3.2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
16avg outs · L5
L2050%

Nick Martinez MLB outs: cleared over 16.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 16 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Nick Martinez (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Martinez is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +29.6% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday 17 April at PNC Park, Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks