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The latest Bet Better model pick for Max Fried is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 50%, for a model edge of +21.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 10:02AM UTC
MLB

Max Fried

ATL

+21.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Under 4.5 +101 (2.01)
+21.9% Edge
New York Yankees @ San Francisco Giants
Oracle Park, San Francisco, California · Outdoor
Thu 26 Mar, 12:05AM
OUT
Manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Fried (elbow) will make at least two rehab starts before a decision will be made on his activation from the 15-day injured list, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.
updated Jul 17, 7:59PM UTC · 3d old
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Model Probability
71.7%
Implied Probability
49.8%
Model Edge
+21.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed71.7%—49.8%1.40+21.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Max Fried (ATL) Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+101)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Giants face off against the Yankees, Max Fried stands poised to shine on the mound. The southpaw's recent form has been nothing short of exceptional, allowing just a smattering of hits over his last few starts. With his robust ground ball rate and sharp breaking stuff, Fried has a knack for keeping hitters off balance, particularly against right-handed batsmen—a key factor against a Yankees lineup that leans heavily on righties. It’s also worth noting that the Giants’ defense has been solid behind him, turning potential hits into outs with impressive efficiency. Given Fried's ability to limit hard contact and the Yankees' current struggles to generate consistent offense, betting on him to stay under 4.5 hits allowed feels like a savvy move. With a model prediction of just 3.47, the odds are certainly stacked in favor of this under bet, making it a compelling play in what promises to be an intriguing matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
L2095%
O 2.590%
O 3.590%
O 4.580%
O 5.580%
O 6.550%
O 7.530%
O 8.520%

Max Fried MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2090%
O 2.580%
O 3.570%
O 4.570%
O 5.530%
O 6.520%
O 7.510%
O 8.510%
O 9.510%

Max Fried MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak2L2080%
O 0.580%
O 1.550%
O 2.510%

Max Fried MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1avg earned runs · L5

Max Fried MLB earned runs: averaging 1 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
19avg outs · L5
Streak3L2070%

Max Fried MLB outs: cleared over 17.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 19 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Max Fried (ATL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Max Fried is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.9% on this pick. Their next game is New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants on Thursday 26 March at Oracle Park, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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