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The latest Bet Better model pick for Chandler Simpson is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits.
On the Batter - Hits market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 73%, for a model edge of +13.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 20, 3:47AM UTC
MLB

Chandler Simpson

TBR

+13.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Under 1.5 -270 (1.37)
+13.8% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 5:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
86.8%
Implied Probability
73.0%
Model Edge
+13.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits86.8%—73.0%1.15+13.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Chandler Simpson (TBR) Under 1.5 Hits (-270)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Red Sox and Rays gear up for their matchup, all eyes should be on Chandler Simpson’s hitting prowess. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance this season, recent trends suggest he may struggle against the Rays' formidable pitching staff. Tampa Bay has thrived on the mound, boasting a top-five strikeout rate, which could spell trouble for Simpson, especially with his recent batting average dipping below .200 against right-handed pitchers. Moreover, Boston’s lineup has been inconsistent, often failing to generate runs in crucial moments. With the added pressure of facing a pitcher like Shane McClanahan, who has been lights out, it’s hard to envision Simpson racking up hits. Betting the under on 1.5 hits feels like a savvy play, given the statistical landscape and recent performances. Expect Simpson to face a tough day at the plate, making this under bet a compelling choice for today’s game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
O 0.560%
O 1.520%

Chandler Simpson MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.540%
O 2.520%
O 3.520%
O 4.520%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.5 · hi 3 · lo 0
111303

Chandler Simpson MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Chandler Simpson MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
O 0.560%
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
O 3.520%
O 4.520%

Chandler Simpson MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.520%

Chandler Simpson MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.520%

Chandler Simpson MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Chandler Simpson MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -270 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -179 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 1.5 Under -118 ✗ MISS
17 Jul 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
10 Jul 26 Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
08 Jul 26 New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Chandler Simpson (TBR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Chandler Simpson is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.8% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox on Sunday 19 July at Fenway Park, Boston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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