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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 8:54PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Wed 21 May 2025, 5:10PM
20
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 3.5 Team Total +176

The model graded 26 markets for Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $276 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 21 May 2025, 5:10PM at Tropicana Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win52.9%
The price says36.2%
Best price+176
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Under 3.5 Lean53% chance +176
Team Total High67% chance
Team Total High79% chance
Team Total Long-shot38% chance
Team Total High88% chance
Team Total Long-shot25% chance
Team Total High94% chance
Team Total Long-shot15% chance
Team Total High97% chance
Batter - Stolen Bases × 4 props Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 80%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 86%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Under
4.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ethan Pecko SP

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Griffin Jax SPOut
  • Cole Sulser RPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Drew Rasmussen SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 7:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jose Caballero TBR Batter - Stolen Bases
Josh Lowe TBR Batter - Stolen Bases
Taylor Walls TBR Batter - Stolen Bases
Zack Littell TBR Pitcher - Walks
Zack Littell TBR Pitcher - Strikeouts

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L53-2vs Houston Astros L55-0Free board14-13

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 5-0, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L53-2vs Houston Astros L55-0Free board13-12

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 5-0, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Tampa Bay Rays total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
1.4runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L53-2vs Houston Astros L55-0

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.4 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays — what the model found

Our model graded 26 betting markets for Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays — 20 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 26 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 25 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent results

Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 3 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–6SDHome
W9–4SDHome
W3–0DETAway
L1–4DETAway
W4–1DETAway
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6NYMAway
W3–1NYMAway
W5–1NYYAway
L3–9NYYAway
W9–7NYYAway

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Tampa Bay Rays won 1, Houston Astros won 2.

DateTampa Bay RaysHouston AstrosWinner
Jul 502Houston Astros
Jul 431Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 4810Houston Astros

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Griffin Jax SPOUT
Cole Sulser RPOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Ryan Pepiot SPOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Rays, or as Rays vs Astros. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 21 May 2025 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 22 meetings on record
Houston Astros 12–10 across the last 22 meetings · these games average 7.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
5 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros2–0Houston Astros
4 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros10–8Houston Astros
3 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros1–3Tampa Bay Rays
1 Jun 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros1–0Houston Astros
31 May 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros3–16Tampa Bay Rays
30 May 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros2–1Houston Astros
29 May 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros3–13Tampa Bay Rays
21 May 2025Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays8–4Tampa Bay Rays
20 May 2025Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays3–2Tampa Bay Rays
19 May 2025Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays3–4Houston Astros

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 22 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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