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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 21, 5:56AM UTC

Our model graded 70 markets for Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays and backs Over 9.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $280.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
65.0%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 9.5 Total Runs +180

The model graded 70 markets for Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $280 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 65.0% across 40 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 13 Sep 2026, 5:40PM at Tropicana Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win44.7%
The price says34.7%
Best price+180
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9.5 Lean45% chance +180
Total Runs Members only Lean58% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean44% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only Lean49% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot24% chance Members
Spread Members only Lean55% chance Members
Batter - Doubles × 9 props Highup to 75% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 4 props Highup to 67% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Leanup to 55% Members
Batter - RBIs × 1 prop Leanup to 42% Members
Batter - Strikeouts × 5 props Highup to 82% Members
Batter - Walks × 4 props Leanup to 42% Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 6 props Highup to 84% Members
Batter - Home Runs × 2 props Long-shotup to 25% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays last met on Sun 13 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Over 9.5 · $100 returned $280

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 164 of 342 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts overs)
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
9.5
+180
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Enyel De Los Santos RPOut
  • Steven Okert RPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Hunter Brown SP

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Shane McClanahan SPOut
  • Garrett Cleavinger RPOut
  • Tyler Wells RPOut
  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Griffin Jax SP
Availability updated Sep 21, 1:44AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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The preview

Written 14 Sep

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction and Picks, September 14, 2026

On September 14, 2026 our model has run Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros: Over 5 Total Runs (-556), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Richie Palacios Over 0.5 Hits (-141)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Richie Palacios Over 0.5 Hits (-141). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at -141 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.09 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Daulton Varsho (TOR) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-189)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Daulton Varsho (TOR) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-189). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -189 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.29 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Nick Madrigal (CHC) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+124)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Nick Madrigal (CHC) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+124). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at +124 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+182)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+182). That is a alternate spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +182 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros: Over 5 Total Runs (-556)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros: Over 5 Total Runs (-556). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -556 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros: Over 5.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (+162)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros: Over 5.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (+162). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +162 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 14 Sep

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 14, 2026

On September 14, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-233)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-233). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -233 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.29 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Hayden Wesneski (HOU) Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-833)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Hayden Wesneski (HOU) Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-833). That is a Strikeouts bet. It was priced at -833 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jonny Deluca (TBR) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-714)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Tampa Bay Rays play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jonny Deluca (TBR) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-714). That is a Stolen Bases bet. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Taylor Trammell Batter - Doubles
Richie Palacios Batter - Doubles
Christian Walker HOU Batter - Doubles
Nick Madrigal CHC Batter - Doubles
Isaac Paredes Batter - Doubles

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.4L5 RA2.6Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L51-4

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 4-1, 6.4 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.4L5 RA2.6Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L51-4

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 4-1, 6.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Tampa Bay Rays total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
6.1runs we expect
L5 RF6.4L5 RA2.6Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L51-4

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.4 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent results

Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 1 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–1BOSHome
W2–1BOSHome
L2–4BOSHome
W10–1ATHHome
W4–3ATHHome
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–4ATLHome
L2–6ATLHome
L3–6ATLHome
L2–5KCHome
W6–2KCHome

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Tampa Bay Rays won 4, Houston Astros won 2.

DateTampa Bay RaysHouston AstrosWinner
Sep 13144Tampa Bay Rays
Sep 1232Tampa Bay Rays
Sep 1131Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 502Houston Astros
Jul 431Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 4810Houston Astros

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Garrett Cleavinger RPOUT
Tyler Wells RPOUT
Manuel Rodriguez RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Ryan Pepiot SPOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Enyel De Los Santos RPOUT
Steven Okert RPOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

Our Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays prediction for September 14, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 14, 2026 our model has run Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros: Over 5 Total Runs (-556), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
40
Total Picks
65.0%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Spread Houston Astros +1 ✗ MISS
13 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros -1.5 ✗ MISS
13 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Tampa Bay Rays -3.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Rays, or as Rays vs Astros. The most recent game between them was Sunday 13 September 2026 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 65.0% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 25 meetings on record
Tampa Bay Rays 14–11 across the last 25 meetings · these games average 7.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Sep 2026Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays14–4Tampa Bay Rays
12 Sep 2026Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays3–2Tampa Bay Rays
11 Sep 2026Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays3–1Tampa Bay Rays
5 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros2–0Houston Astros
4 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros1–3Tampa Bay Rays
3 Jul 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros1–3Tampa Bay Rays
1 Jun 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros1–0Houston Astros
31 May 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros3–16Tampa Bay Rays
30 May 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros2–1Houston Astros
29 May 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros3–13Tampa Bay Rays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 25 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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