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Model picks & player props
Milwaukee Brewers
VS
New York Mets

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 12:54PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Thu 3 Jul 2025, 11:10PM
0
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Player props & full board
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Sal Frelick RFOut
  • Kyle Harrison SPOut
  • David Hamilton 3BOut
  • DL Hall RPOut
  • Brandon Lockridge LFOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Brandon Sproat SP

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
David Peterson NYM Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
David Peterson NYM Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Christian Yelich MIL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
David Peterson NYM Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Milwaukee BrewersNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
2.2implied team total
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.4 runs per game (4-1) while Milwaukee Brewers are at 5.8 (3-2); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 2.2 for Milwaukee Brewers.

4.4
New York Mets runs/G
5.8
Milwaukee Brewers runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsMilwaukee Brewers
Runs / game4.45.8
Hits / game8.28.4
Home runs / game1.40.6
Walks drawn / game3.03.8
Batter K / game6.05.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.62.2
Pitching K / game10.64.4
Walks allowed / game3.22.6
L5 record4-13-2

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers. Get predictions and top picks. Featuring picks like NA props. Keywords: same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.</p>

David Peterson (NYM) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-909)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

David Peterson's recent performance data indicates a strong propensity for strikeouts. His last five overall games show an average of 6.8 strikeouts, and his home game average is even higher at 7. This is well above the line set at 2.5. Furthermore, Peterson has been consistent, with a current hit streak of 7 overall and 4 at home. Even when facing the Brewers, his average strikeouts are 4.4, still above the line. His innings pitched and outs averages also suggest he typically plays enough of the game to achieve the required strikeouts. While his averages are slightly lower when specifically at home or against the Brewers, they are still comfortably above the line. Therefore, the over on Peterson's strikeouts is a statistically sound bet.

David Peterson (NYM) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-2500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

David Peterson's recent performance data supports the bet for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market. His last five overall and home games show a consistent pattern of allowing above 2.5 hits. The average hits allowed overall is 4.6, significantly higher than the line of 2.5. At home, this average rises to 6, further reinforcing the trend. His innings pitched and outs averages also suggest he's on the mound long enough for this number of hits to occur. Even when considering his performance against the Brewers, Peterson's average hits allowed is 3.4, still above the line. His current streak of allowing hits, both overall and at home, adds further weight to this bet. Therefore, the statistics indicate a high probability of Peterson allowing more than 2.5 hits in the upcoming game.

David Peterson (NYM) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-1000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on David Peterson for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is backed by his recent performance data. Peterson's last five games show an average of 2.2 walks allowed overall, and 1.4 walks allowed at home. This suggests a strong likelihood of at least one walk in the upcoming game. Furthermore, when facing the Brewers, his walk rate increases to an average of 2.8. Even considering his lower innings pitched at home (5.1 IP), Peterson's walk rate remains above the 0.5 line. While his current hit streak is zero, this does not significantly impact the walk rate. Therefore, based on Peterson's consistent history of allowing walks, it is statistically reasonable to bet on him exceeding 0.5 walks in the upcoming game against the Brewers.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
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Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 3 July 2025 at Citi Field. The model has generated 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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