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Model picks & player props
Milwaukee Brewers
VS
New York Mets

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 24, 11:58PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Tue 25 Aug 2026, 11:10PM
3
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Mets Moneyline +138

The model graded 3 markets for Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $238 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 25 Aug 2026, 11:10PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win55.6%
The price says42.0%
Best price+138
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New York Mets Lean56% chance +138
Spread High67% chance
Total Runs Lean49% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 902 of 1,825 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 23
Under 5.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $412
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New York Mets
+ 2 more markets
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All 3 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 55,863+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line

Best price right now

Caesars
on New York Mets
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Abner Uribe RPOut
  • Garrett Mitchell CFDay-to-day
  • Sal Frelick RFOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut
  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

New York Mets

  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut
Availability updated Aug 24, 5:32PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

3 markets live
MoneylineNew York Mets to win+138
56%model win %
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

New York Mets moneyline vs Milwaukee Brewers is live and our model makes it 56% (LEAN); L5 record 2-3.

Run LineNew York Mets run line+1.5 -132
67%cover %
+1.5proj. margin
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

New York Mets spread vs Milwaukee Brewers is live and our model makes it 67% (HIGH); proj. margin +1.5.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Milwaukee BrewersOver 7.5 -115
8.9proj. runs
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

New York Mets total runs vs Milwaukee Brewers is live and our model makes it 49% (LONG-SHOT); proj. runs 8.9.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
1.4runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets — 3 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5 games; Milwaukee Brewers have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2CHWAway
W10–5CHWAway
L4–6CHWAway
W4–2SDHome
L2–5SDHome
Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–4ATLHome
W4–1ATLHome
W2–1ATLHome
W7–4SEAHome
L5–7SEAHome

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.4 runs per game (4-1) while Milwaukee Brewers are at 5.8 (3-2); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 2.2 for Milwaukee Brewers.

4.4
New York Mets runs/G
5.8
Milwaukee Brewers runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsMilwaukee Brewers
Runs / game4.45.8
Hits / game8.28.4
Home runs / game1.40.6
Walks drawn / game3.03.8
Batter K / game6.05.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.62.2
Pitching K / game10.64.4
Walks allowed / game3.22.6
L5 record4-13-2

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: New York Mets won 1, Milwaukee Brewers won 2.

DateNew York MetsMilwaukee BrewersWinner
Jul 2234Milwaukee Brewers
Jul 2140New York Mets
Jul 2038Milwaukee Brewers

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Abner Uribe RPOUT
Garrett Mitchell CFDAY-TO-DAY
Sal Frelick RFOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
JoJo Romero RPOUT
Joel Kuhnel RPOUT
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets — model preview

Our Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets prediction for August 25, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 25, 2026 our model has run Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers: Over 7.5 Total Runs (-115), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 1 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Brewers vs Mets, or as Mets vs Brewers. The next scheduled game is Tuesday 25 August 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 3 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Milwaukee Brewers 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
22 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers4–3Milwaukee Brewers
21 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers0–4New York Mets
20 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers8–3Milwaukee Brewers
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