On Saturday 3 October 2026, Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Josh Allen (BUF) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns, priced at +118 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Josh Allen (BUF) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+118)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Josh Allen (BUF) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at +118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Under 2.5 Receptions (+106)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Under 2.5 Receptions. It was priced at +106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kyle Williams (NE) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-189)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kyle Williams (NE) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -189 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots: New England Patriots (-263)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is New England Patriots. It was priced at -263 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots: Buffalo Bills (-115)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Buffalo Bills. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots: New England Patriots (+112)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Buffalo Bills play New England Patriots in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is New England Patriots. That is a Team Total bet. It was priced at +112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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