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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jy Simpkin is Under 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +19.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 18, 6:37AM UTC
AFL

Jy Simpkin

North Melbourne

+19.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -112 (1.89)
+19.7% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
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Model Probability
72.6%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+19.7%
Predicted Value
19.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.6%52.9%1.38+19.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) Under 22.5 Disposals (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Jy Simpkin's recent form at Marvel Stadium, where the North Melbourne Kangaroos will clash with the Melbourne Demons, the under on his disposals line of 22.5 seems like a savvy play. Over his last five home games, Simpkin has averaged 21.6 disposals, falling just short of the 22.5 line. His contested possessions sit at 4.8, while his disposalefficiency is at 76.2%. Against Melbourne specifically, he averages 25.8 disposals at home and 24.4 overall. With a hit rate of 11/15 in his last 15 home games, it's not a stretch to see him below that 22.5 mark this time. The stats indicate a strong chance of Simpkin coming in under the line, making this a solid proposition to consider for the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
21.4avg disposals L5
Home21.6vs Melbourne24.4Season best29
O 19.560%
O 20.550%
O 21.540%
O 22.540%
O 23.520%
O 24.520%
Game log vs line (O 21.5)avg 24 · hi 28 · lo 20
25212826232420262225

Jy Simpkin has gone over 21.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 21.4 disposals, best 29).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 14.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 15.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jy Simpkin is Under 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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