Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (+118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Simpkin sits at the heart of this play. The model projects him at 0.7 goals against a line of just 0.5, generating an 11.8% edge over the implied probability of 45.9% — solid value at $2.18. His overall L5 goal average of 0.6 and a 2/3 hit rate in his last three games show he's in decent touch, and he's riding a two-game overall scoring streak. The knock on him away from home is real — his L5 away goals average drops to 0.4 with a 20% conversion rate from just one shot at goal per game — but crucially, against Sydney specifically, he averages 1.0 goal across both home and away games in his last five meetings. That opponent-specific figure is the key differentiator here. With 5.4 score involvements per away game, he's getting into the action; he just needs one shot to fall his way.