Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) Under 20.5 Disposals (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jy Simpkin, playing away, faces a tough matchup against Melbourne where he historically averages 18.8 disposals. However, Melbourne limits him to 24.5 disposals when playing away. Simpkin's recent form shows an average of 18.2 disposals, indicating a trend under the proposed line. With a solid contested possessions average of 8.6 but facing turnovers at 4.4, his disposals might be impacted. His disposals efficiency at 71.6% could be a saving grace, but the model's prediction of 18.2, coupled with a 13.8% edge, suggests he may fall short of the 20.5 line. Simpkin's streak of hitting below the line in away games aligns with this analysis, making the under 20.5 disposals bet enticing.