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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jy Simpkin is Under 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +18.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 7, 9:45AM UTC
AFL

Jy Simpkin

North Melbourne

+18.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -116 (1.86)
+18.9% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks
University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:35AM
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
72.6%
Implied Probability
53.8%
Model Edge
+18.9%
Predicted Value
19.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.6%53.8%1.38+18.9%

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AI Analysis

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Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) Under 22.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Jy Simpkin's recent form on the road, his average disposals over the last five away games sits at a respectable 21.4. However, facing Hawthorn at University of Tasmania Stadium, he's historically had a tougher time, with his average disposals dropping slightly to 20.2 when playing against them away. While he's been solid overall, his numbers against this opponent suggest he might struggle to hit the Over 22.5 disposals mark. Simpkin's ability to find space and impact the game is evident, but the data hints that this matchup could see him fall just short of the line. Considering his recent performance against Hawthorn, taking the Under on Simpkin's disposals could be a smart play this Saturday.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
24avg disposals recent
Season best29
Disposals last 10avg 24 · hi 28 · lo 20
25212826232420262225

Jy Simpkin has a disposals high of 29 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 22.5 Under -116 ✗ MISS
26 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 22.5 Under -132 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 22.5 Under -112 ✗ MISS
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jy Simpkin is Under 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.9% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 1 August at University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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