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AFL

Callum Mills

Sydney Swans

+17.3% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -104 (1.96)
+17.3% Edge
Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Sun 13 Jul, 5:15AM
Model Probability
68.3%
Implied Probability
51.0%
Model Edge
+17.3%
Predicted Value
21.1 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Callum Mills (Sydney Swans) Under 23.5 Disposals (-104)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Callum Mills is likely to fall short of 23.5 disposals against St Kilda based on his recent performances. His L5 average disposals away (21.8) and against St Kilda (18) suggest he may struggle to exceed the line. Additionally, his recent turnover average (3.2) and lower contested possession rate (5.6) might limit his overall disposals. Despite a solid L5 disposals average (23.4), Mills' statistical trends, including his lower disposal efficiency away (83.0%), indicate potential difficulty reaching the line. The model's prediction of 21.1 disposals also supports this under bet, with a calculated edge of 17.3%. Considering these factors, wagering on Mills to stay under 23.5 disposals could be a strategic move for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (2 picks) 50.0% (1/2)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Jul 25 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 23.5 Under -104 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 22.5 Under -115 ✗ MISS

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