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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Callum Mills is Under 26.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 54%, edge +17.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 2:43PM UTC
AFL

Callum Mills

Sydney Swans

+17.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 26.5 -119 (1.84) · $100→$184
+17.2% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug, 5:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
23.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.5% · the book's price implies 54.3% · gap +17.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.5%54.3%1.40+17.2%

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AI Analysis

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Callum Mills (Sydney Swans) Under 26.5 Disposals (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Callum Mills hitting the under on 26.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between Sydney Swans and North Melbourne Kangaroos, the stats paint a clear picture. Despite his recent solid form, averaging 24.4 disposals in his last 5 home games, he faces a North Melbourne side where he averages 22.7 disposals against them at home. With an overall average of 21.4 disposals in his last 5 games, and a model predicting 23.2 disposals, the under seems like a smart play. Mills' consistency is commendable, but the matchup dynamics suggest he might fall just short this time. Combine that with his recent hit streaks, and the under looks even more enticing. Trust the numbers to guide you towards a profitable bet on Mills for this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Callum Mills averaged 17.4 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.4 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

17.4
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.4
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Callum Mills has cleared 20.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o20.590%
o21.580%
o23.570%
o25.540%
o26.520%
o28.520%
o30.510%
o31.510%
o33.50%
o35.50%
o36.50%
o38.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Callum Mills is averaging 21.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

21.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs GWS GIANTS), Callum Mills recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS19072
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows270102
16 Aug 24Essendon26080
9 Aug 24Collingwood12013
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide14063
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs12155
13 Jul 24North Melbourne12111
8 Sep 23Carlton21035
27 Aug 23Melbourne301812
19 Aug 23Adelaide Crows11034
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans Disposals 26.5 Under -119 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Callum Mills (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Callum Mills is Under 26.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.2% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans on Sunday 23 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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