Today's Serie A Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds (Thursday 09/10 Serie A Slate)

As Sevilla gears up to face Valencia, the corner flag may see plenty of action. Analyzing the recent trends, both teams have displayed an appetite for attacking football, with Sevilla averaging over 17 shots per game at home, while Valencia isn’t shy about pressing, recording nearly 14 shots on the road. Defensively, both sides have shown vulnerabilities, conceding a steady stream of corners. Sevilla’s last five outings at home have seen them win an average of 3.4 corners, while Valencia has often matched that intensity, averaging around 1.4 on their travels. With Sevilla's need to turn around their disappointing form and Valencia’s push to exploit any gaps, expect a lively encounter filled with corner-kick opportunities. Betting on over 8.5 corners seems a compelling play as both teams seek to establish dominance and create chances in what promises to be a fiercely competitive clash.

Sevilla vs Valencia: Over 9.5 Total Corners (+155)

As Sevilla welcomes Valencia, the stage is set for a corner kicks bonanza. Both teams, in their recent outings, have shown a propensity for attacking play, which often translates into corner opportunities. Sevilla, despite a mixed home record of 2-1-2 recently, averages a respectable 17.4 shots per game at home, contributing to their corner count of about 3.4 per match. On the flip side, Valencia's away games have seen them not only create chances but also concede them, averaging nearly 14.2 shots against. This balance of attacking and defensive frailties suggests that both teams will push for territory, leading to plenty of corners. Given their recent head-to-head, with Sevilla struggling to claim victories, expect a fiercely contested match that should easily surpass the 9.5 line for total corners.

Genoa vs Frosinone: Frosinone Draw No Bet (+150)

As Genoa prepares to host Frosinone, recent form tells a compelling story. Genoa's home struggles are glaring, with five consecutive winless games, averaging a meager 0.4 goals per match while conceding 2.0. Their lack of creativity is evident, with a dismal xG of 0, showcasing an inability to generate scoring opportunities. On the flip side, Frosinone has found a rhythm away from home, netting an average of 1.2 goals and showcasing a solid defensive record. They’ve won three of their last five overall, including a recent away triumph. With Frosinone's attacking prowess combined with Genoa's ongoing woes, betting on Frosinone in the Draw No Bet market feels like a savvy move. The odds reflect a favorable risk-reward balance, considering Frosinone's recent momentum against a struggling Genoa side.

Genoa vs Frosinone: Frosinone +0 Goal Handicap (+150)

As Genoa prepares to host Frosinone, recent form strongly favors the visitors. While Genoa is mired in a five-match winless streak at home, scoring only 0.4 goals per game lately, Frosinone has shown a resurgence with three wins in their last five outings, averaging 1.4 goals scored. What’s more alarming for Genoa is their abysmal xG performance; they’ve created virtually no clear scoring chances at home, contributing to their dismal average of just 0.8 goals. On the flip side, Frosinone’s ability to generate 14.4 shots per game, with a solid 5.2 on target, speaks volumes about their attacking prowess. Given the stark contrast in scoring capabilities and Frosinone’s recent head-to-head success, a bet on Frosinone at level handicap looks increasingly tempting. They’re primed to take advantage of Genoa's struggles and can surely salvage at least a draw, if not more.

Levante vs Barcelona: Levante +2.25 Goal Handicap (-120)

As Levante prepares to host Barcelona, recent form paints a more competitive picture than you might expect. While Levante's overall home record shows a struggle, their last five home games tell a different story: they’re unbeaten, showcasing a robust defensive structure. In stark contrast, Barcelona, despite their formidable away form, has historically struggled at Levante, winning just four of their last five encounters. Levante's scoring averages at home (2.6 goals) suggest they can find the back of the net, while Barcelona has allowed an average of 1 goal per away match. With xG stats reflecting solid attacking play from both sides, a handicap line of 2.25 offers a tantalizing opportunity. Levante's ability to hold their own, coupled with Barcelona’s inconsistent past at this venue, makes the bet on Levante a compelling option. It’s a risk worth taking, especially given the recent trends.

That is the model's read on today's Serie A card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.