Here are our Serie A picks for Sunday 20 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 9.5 Total Corners, priced at +160 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Fiorentina hosts Napoli on Sunday, expect a high corner count as both teams have shown a knack for creating pressure. Napoli's away games have averaged 1.2 corners per match while Fiorentina's home struggles have led to a whopping 17 total shots in their last five matches at home—indicating a penchant for attacking play. With Napoli also pushing forward, scoring 1.6 goals away, the likelihood of corner kicks rises significantly. Fiorentina, despite their defensive woes, tends to earn corners when they’re forced to chase games, especially against a Napoli side that has dominated their recent encounters. Combine these trends, and the odds favor an explosive match that should easily clear the 9.5 corners line. It’s a game that screams opportunity for corner lovers. Expect action, pressure, and a flurry of flags from the corner arc.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As AC Milan prepares to face Lecce, the recent form tells an intriguing story. While Milan boasts a solid home record, their last five matches reveal a shaky 2-2-1 run, and they’ve only managed to score an average of 1 goal per game at home. Lecce, on the other hand, is riding a wave of momentum with three wins in their last five outings. Their attacking prowess has seen them score an average of 1.4 goals away, significantly outpacing what Milan is managing defensively. Moreover, Lecce has historically struggled against Milan, but their current form and resilience suggest they can keep it closer than expected. Considering Milan's inconsistency and Lecce's upward trajectory, taking Lecce +1.75 on the handicap seems a smart move, especially as they look to capitalize on a distracted AC Milan. It’s a bet grounded in recent trends and tactical nuances that could pay off handsomely.
Fluminense vs Coritiba: Both Teams To Score: No (-143)
Odds available at williamhill at time of publishing
As Fluminense prepares to host Coritiba, the dynamics suggest a low-scoring affair. Fluminense has been solid at home, averaging a mere 1.4 goals while restricting opponents to just 0.8 goals over their last five matches at the Maracanã. Their xG numbers reflect a similar trend, showing an inability to convert chances into goals. Coritiba, while decent on the road with an average of 1.4 goals, has faced a similar struggle in creating consistent scoring opportunities. Their away form has seen them yield only 1.2 goals to opponents, and their away xG is alarmingly low. Considering both teams' recent outputs and defensive solidity, the forecast leans heavily towards a match where at least one side fails to find the net, making the "No" bet for both teams to score a compelling pick.
Fiorentina vs Napoli: Over 8.5 Total Corners (-108)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Fiorentina hosts Napoli, expect a corner fest. Despite Fiorentina's recent struggles at home, averaging just 1.2 corners per game in their last five outings, their tendency to push forward could lead to plenty of corner opportunities. They’ve faced 2.4 corners conceded on average from their opponents, which isn’t promising for a defense that’s been shaky. Meanwhile, Napoli thrives on the road, scoring 1.6 goals away on average and generating about 1.2 corners. Their attacking flair suggests they’ll pile on the pressure, forcing errors and corners. The overall dynamics point towards a match where both teams will have chances to attack, pushing the total corners over 8.5. With recent trends leaning towards a higher corner count, this bet feels like a savvy pick as both sides look to exploit weaknesses in the other's defense.
AC Milan vs Lecce: Lecce +1.25 Goal Handicap (+145)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As AC Milan prepares to host Lecce, the dynamics shift intriguingly. While Milan boasts a perfect record against Lecce over their last five encounters, their recent form at home tells a different story, managing just two wins in their last five matches. Notably, their average goals scored at home has dipped to just one, indicating a struggle in front of goal. On the flip side, Lecce arrives with a solid away record, winning three of their last five and showing resilience. With an average of 1.4 goals per game away, they’re capable of causing problems for a Milan defense that has conceded 1.6 goals at home. Given the goals trend and Lecce’s current form, a handicap bet on Lecce at 1.25 looks appealing. It balances the historical dominance of Milan with the present-day realities of both squads, making this an enticing prospect for bettors.
Fiorentina vs Napoli: Over 3.5 Total Cards (+100)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
When Fiorentina meets Napoli, expect a feisty encounter that could easily see cards flying. Fiorentina's last five home games have been a struggle, with a dismal 0-3-2 record and a shocking average of 13.2 fouls. Their propensity to give away free kicks is alarming, particularly when you consider Napoli's away form, where they average 8.2 fouls but have shown a knack for drawing cards from their opponents. With both teams desperate for points, tensions will be high. Recent matchups have seen Napoli dominate, winning four of the last five meetings against Fiorentina. When you factor in a combined average of around 11.6 tackles and the fierce rivalry, betting on over 3.5 cards feels like the right call. This clash promises not only drama on the pitch but a few card showings as well!
That is the model's read on today's Serie A card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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