Today's Serie A Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds for ALL Games on Wednesday 09/09

As Sevilla welcomes Valencia, there’s a compelling case for an over bet on corners – and it’s more than just a hunch. Sevilla's attacking style, evident from their average of 17.4 shots per home game, creates pressure that often results in corner kicks. With a recent average of 3.4 corners at home, they’re frequently looking to capitalize on their offensive play. Valencia, despite their struggles, remains a threat with 14.2 shots away from home, suggesting they can also contribute to the corner count. Historically, these two teams have a tendency to produce corner-heavy matches, and the recent form only backs that up. With both squads needing points, expect a high-paced encounter where corners will be plentiful. The stats align, and with the line set at 7.5, it’s an enticing opportunity to cash in on those corner kicks.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Under 3.5 Total Goals (+106)

As Real Madrid prepares to host Rayo Vallecano, the stage is set for a clash that might not yield a goal-fest. Real has been rock solid at home, averaging 3.2 goals scored while conceding just 0.8 in their last five at the Bernabéu. However, their recent matches against Rayo suggest a more cautious approach, with a history of tight encounters, exemplified by a 2-3-0 record over the last five meetings. Rayo, on the other hand, has struggled to find the net away from home, averaging just 1.6 goals while allowing 1.8. Both teams’ xG stats have been underwhelming lately, indicating that defensive solidity may take precedence. With Madrid's recent scoring average coupled with Rayo's tendency to play it safe, anticipating under 3.5 goals feels like a wise bet. Expect a tactical battle rather than an all-out scoring spree.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-204)

As Real Madrid prepares to face Rayo Vallecano, the narrative points toward a match that could very well see fewer than five goals. Real's home form is impressive, with a paltry average of just 0.8 goals conceded per game in their last five at the Bernabéu. They’ve been efficient in attack too, averaging 3.2 goals scored at home, but their recent encounters with Rayo suggest a tighter affair; historically, they've ended up with a modest 2-3-0 record against them. Rayo's away form is equally telling, managing just 1.6 goals per game, while their defense has allowed 1.8 on average. With both sides showing a trend of underwhelming xG metrics recently, betting on under 4.5 goals seems prudent. Expect a tactical battle that prioritizes defense over free-flowing attack, making this a prime candidate for a low-scoring encounter.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Rayo Vallecano +3.5 Goal Handicap (-303)

As Real Madrid prepares to face Rayo Vallecano, the narrative leans heavily in favor of the home side, but the handicap market offers intriguing potential for Rayo. Madrid has been dominant at home, averaging a remarkable 3.2 goals while conceding just 0.8 in their last five matches at the Bernabéu. However, Rayo's recent trends show a determined side that, despite a poor record against Madrid historically, has managed to put up competitive performances lately. Their away form, with an average of 1.6 goals scored, hints at the ability to trouble a solid defense. Considering Real's tendency to dominate possession and create chances—averaging nearly 19 shots per game—Rayo may find opportunities on the counter. With the handicap set at a generous 3.5, backing Rayo to keep the scoreline respectable feels like a savvy choice, especially given their resilience in recent outings.

Levante vs Barcelona: Levante +2 Goal Handicap (-110)

As Levante prepares to host Barcelona, there’s an intriguing narrative unfolding. While the home side has struggled to find their footing, their recent form at home has shown promise, boasting a perfect record in their last five matches at the Estadi Ciutat de València. They’ve scored an average of 2.6 goals per home game, which highlights their attacking potential, even against a formidable opponent like Barcelona. Conversely, Barcelona has been strong away, yet they've faced Levante four times recently without securing a win, which adds a layer of unpredictability. With Levante having a solid shot count and the ability to create chances, betting on them with a two-goal cushion seems like a smart play. It’s a chance to capitalize on their home advantage while recognizing the historical context of their encounters. This matchup could be closer than the odds suggest, making the handicap bet on Levante quite appealing.

That is the model's read on today's Serie A card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.