Today's Serie A Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds for ALL Games on Thursday 09/17

As AC Milan gears up to face Lecce, the betting landscape is intriguing. While Milan has dominated this matchup historically, their recent form at home is shaky, with just two wins in their last five games. They've averaged only 1.0 goals at home recently, struggling to convert chances into goals. Lecce, on the other hand, has found a rhythm away, netting 1.4 goals per game and showcasing a solid defensive structure that’s limited opponents to just 0.8 goals on the road. With an away record of 3-0-2 recently, Lecce is brimming with confidence. Their resilience could be key in this clash. Given the handicap of 1.75, backing Lecce offers a blend of safety and potential reward. If they can hold Milan to a draw or sneak a win, this bet could pay off nicely.

Sevilla vs Barcelona: Sevilla +1.75 Goal Handicap (+120)

As Sevilla gears up to face Barcelona, there’s a compelling narrative brewing around their home advantage. Over the last five matches at home, Sevilla has been resilient, boasting a record of 3 wins and only 2 draws. Their ability to score an average of 1.6 goals per match shows they can find the back of the net, even if their overall xG hasn’t been remarkable recently. Now, while Barcelona enters this clash with a perfect away record, their last five meetings against Sevilla have seen them win four times. Yet, Sevilla's defensive prowess, allowing just 1.2 goals at home, could stifle Barcelona’s attacking rhythm. Given the challenging conditions for an away team at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, betting on Sevilla with a 1.75 handicap feels like a savvy play. They may just surprise us, especially with the passionate home support behind them.

Sevilla vs Barcelona: Sevilla +2.25 Goal Handicap (-135)

As Sevilla prepares to host Barcelona, there's an intriguing narrative unfolding. While Barcelona has been a force on the road, winning their last five with a blistering average of 4.2 goals, Sevilla's home form tells a different story. They’ve shown resilience at home, with a record of 3-1-1 in their last five outings. The key lies in their defensive solidity—allowing just 1.2 goals per game at home—and the fact that they’re not far off from the attacking firepower needed to match Barcelona’s prowess. Sevilla is averaging 1.6 goals per game recently, supported by their ability to create 11.8 shots per match. With the handicap set at 2.25, backing Sevilla makes sense. They’ve managed to keep things competitive against top teams, and the home crowd could provide that extra spark. In a high-stakes clash like this, expect Sevilla to rise to the occasion.

AC Milan vs Lecce: Lecce +1.25 Goal Handicap (+135)

As AC Milan prepares to host Lecce, the dynamics suggest a more competitive match than the odds might imply. While Milan boasts a strong historical record against Lecce, their recent form at home tells a different story. With just one win in their last five home games, they’ve been surprisingly vulnerable, averaging only 1 goal scored while conceding nearly 1.6. Lecce, on the other hand, comes into this clash with a solid away performance, scoring 1.4 goals per match and boasting a defensive record that limits opponents to 0.8. Their overall form is promising, with an unbeaten streak in their last five away games. With Milan’s home struggles and Lecce's resilience, taking Lecce with a 1.25 handicap feels like the right bet, especially as they look to build on their recent momentum and defy history. Expect an intriguing contest that could see Lecce surprise the Rossoneri.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa +0.75 Goal Handicap (-164)

When Tottenham Hotspur host Aston Villa, recent form heavily favors the visitors. Spurs have struggled at home, managing only one win in their last five matches, while Villa’s record against them in recent encounters is more promising. Despite their own inconsistencies, Villa has shown resilience, and their away form suggests they can hold their own against a faltering Spurs side. Tottenham's attacking woes are glaring; they’ve averaged a meager 0.8 goals at home lately, compounded by an even troubling xG figure that hints at a lack of genuine scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, Villa, despite some uneven performances, can find the net, averaging 0.8 away from home. With Villa's determination to secure points and Spurs’ home struggles, a bet on Aston Villa at +0.75 seems the smart play. It’s a chance to capitalize on Tottenham’s vulnerabilities while backing a side that’s looking to turn their fortunes around.

That is the model's read on today's Serie A card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.