Today's Serie A Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds for ALL Games on Saturday 09/12

As Lecce welcomes Monza, the corner count could easily surpass 7.5, given the recent trends of both sides. Lecce's last five home matches have averaged a respectable 9.8 total shots, hinting at their attacking intent. While they've struggled to convert those into goals, their style generates a fair number of corners, averaging around 2.6 per match at home. On the flip side, Monza's away form has been shaky, but they still average 2.2 corners per game on the road. With Lecce looking to assert dominance at home and Monza desperate to find their footing, expect a flurry of activity in the final third. Both teams tend to concede corners too—Lecce allowing 1.2 per home game and Monza 2.2 away—setting the stage for an exciting match with plenty of corner kicks. This clash has all the makings of a corner-fueled spectacle!

Levante vs Barcelona: Levante +2.5 Goal Handicap (-128)

Levante’s recent home form is surprisingly strong, boasting an immaculate record of five wins from five against the handicap line. They’ve been resilient at home, averaging 2.6 goals scored while allowing just 0.8, suggesting they can hold their own against any opposition. Meanwhile, Barcelona, despite their impressive away record, has faced Levante with some struggle, winning their last four encounters but often narrowly. The stats tell a compelling story. Levante's expected goals at home remain steady, and while they’ve struggled to convert recently, their attacking stats show they’re creating chances (averaging 19.8 shots in their last five home games). Barcelona, on the other hand, is formidable, yet Levante seems poised to keep the match competitive. With the handicap line set at 2.5, taking Levante is a smart play, especially as they seek to assert dominance on home turf.

Levante vs Barcelona: Levante +2.5 Goal Handicap (-128)

As Levante prepares to host Barcelona, the recent form of both teams tells an interesting story. While Barcelona has been dominant, winning four of their last five, Levante's home advantage can't be overlooked. They boast an impressive 5-0-0 record at home against the spread lately, which means they've been resilient on their turf. Levante’s recent scoring at home averages a solid 2.6 goals, showing they can find the net, while Barcelona’s defense has allowed 1 goal on the road recently. With Levante averaging 19.8 shots at home, their attacking intent is evident. Conversely, Barcelona's away performances are not invulnerable to pressure. Given the strong home record and Barcelona's slight defensive vulnerabilities, backing Levante with a 2.5 handicap seems like a savvy play. They could well turn the tide in this matchup, making it a compelling betting opportunity.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Rayo Vallecano +3.5 Goal Handicap (-263)

As Real Madrid faces Rayo Vallecano, the handicap of 3.5 goals seems a bit steep. Real has been a fortress at home, averaging an impressive 3.2 goals while conceding just 0.8 in their last five at the Bernabéu. However, Rayo has shown resilience, especially recently, managing to keep things competitive despite their historical struggles against Los Blancos. In their last five meetings, Rayo has managed to net a couple of goals against Real, and with a recent scoring average of 1.8, they hold the potential to find the back of the net. With Real’s defensive lapses showing in some matches, Rayo stands a decent chance to keep the scoreline respectable. Betting on Rayo to cover that 3.5 handicap could prove fruitful, especially if they harness their recent form and attack with vigor, making this matchup more intriguing than the odds suggest.

Como vs Parma: Parma +1.75 Goal Handicap (-110)

As Como prepares to host Parma, recent form suggests a compelling case for backing the visitors on a 1.75 handicap. Como's home record shows promise, but their last five matches have featured an impressive average of 2.4 goals scored per game, while their defense has held opponents to just 0.8. However, Parma's struggles on the road can’t be overlooked; their recent performances have been dire, registering a mere 0.4 goals per match and struggling to create meaningful chances. Yet, when looking at their head-to-head encounters, Parma has historically fared well against Como, with two wins in their last five meetings. Considering Como's slight inconsistency and Parma's need for a bounce-back, this match could be the turning point. Expect Parma to find their footing and cover the handicap as they look to capitalize on Como's vulnerabilities.

That is the model's read on today's Serie A card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.