Here are our Serie A picks for Friday 25 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Cagliari Draw No Bet, priced at +134 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Monza hosts Cagliari, the visitors seem to hold a distinct advantage in recent form. Cagliari has rolled into this matchup with a robust away record, notching four wins in their last five, while Monza has struggled at home, managing just one win from their last five fixtures. The stark reality is that Monza's defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 2.4 goals at home, while Cagliari's away defense has held opponents to a mere 0.4 goals. Cagliari's scoring prowess has improved, averaging 1.2 goals away, and their xG figures reflect a more effective attack compared to Monza's stagnant output. With a draw no bet option, backing Cagliari offers a solid safety net, especially with their recent head-to-head advantage. Expect Cagliari to come out on top, or at least avoid defeat in this critical clash.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Napoli prepares to face Frosinone, there's a compelling case for backing the visitors on a handicap of 1.25. While Napoli boasts a decent home record, their recent form—2 wins in the last 5 home matches—suggests vulnerability. In contrast, Frosinone has hit a strong stride away, going 3-1-1 in their last five, averaging 1.8 goals scored while conceding just 0.8. Although their xG numbers don’t jump off the page, the team’s attacking consistency stands out, especially with a staggering 16.8 shots per game recently. Napoli’s defense has been shaky, allowing an average of 1.2 goals per match at home. With both teams gaining momentum but Frosinone showing resilience, this handicap offers a solid opportunity for value as they look to steal points on the road.
Coventry City vs Newcastle United: Under 2.5 Total Goals (+116)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Coventry City prepares to host Newcastle United, recent trends paint a compelling picture for an 'Under 2.5 Goals' outcome. Coventry has struggled offensively, averaging a mere 0.2 goals in their last five outings and showcasing a concerning xG of 0—indicating they haven’t created clear scoring opportunities. Their defensive record hasn’t been much better, allowing an average of 2 goals per game. Newcastle, while slightly more productive, has also been inconsistent, averaging 1.8 goals per game overall but only 0.8 on the road. Their xG numbers reflect a similar struggle, as they too have failed to generate clear chances. It’s hard to envision a high-scoring affair here, especially with Coventry's home form showing just 1.6 goals per game against similarly ranked opponents. With both teams exhibiting offensive woes, a low-scoring showdown seems likely, making the under an enticing play.
Coventry City vs Newcastle United: Under 2.5 Total Goals (+116)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Coventry City gears up to host Newcastle United, a keen eye on the total goals market reveals a compelling case for betting on the under. Coventry's recent form has been stark, averaging just 0.2 goals and a mere 10.2 shots per game in their last five outings. This lack of attacking prowess is further evidenced by their xG numbers, which also trail off significantly. Meanwhile, Newcastle's away performances have not been prolific either, managing only 0.8 goals with a similar trend of low xG, suggesting their offensive threat has been muted. Both teams show signs of defensive resilience—Coventry allowing an average of 1.6 goals at home and Newcastle conceding just 1.6 away. With both sides struggling to find the net lately, an under 2.5 bet seems like a savvy play in what could be a tightly contested affair.
Troyes vs Marseille: Marseille Draw No Bet (-227)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Troyes prepares to host Marseille, the trends and numbers paint a compelling picture in favor of the visitors. Troyes has struggled at home, managing just one win in their last five outings, while their attack has faltered, averaging a mere 0.8 goals per match. Their defensive woes are evident too, conceding 2.2 goals on average at home. Marseille, on the other hand, has a solid track record against Troyes, winning three of their last five meetings. Even though they've faced their own challenges away from home, they’ve recently shown resilience, maintaining a robust average of 1.4 goals in their last five matches. With Troyes failing to find the net effectively, betting on Marseille in the Draw No Bet market seems prudent. They are poised to capitalize on the hosts’ vulnerabilities and could secure a valuable away win.
Troyes vs Marseille: Marseille -0.5 Goal Handicap (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Troyes welcomes Marseille, the stats tell a compelling story favoring the visitors. Troyes has struggled at home lately, recording just one win in their last five, with a meager average of 0.8 goals scored per match. They’ve also conceded an alarming 2.2 goals, highlighting defensive frailties that Marseille will surely exploit. Contrast that with Marseille’s recent form, where they’ve notched up points despite a rocky patch. Their head-to-head record against Troyes is impressive, winning three of the last five encounters. Plus, with Troyes averaging a dire 0 expected goals in their last five, it’s hard to see them keeping a clean sheet. Marseille’s attacking prowess, even while away, should shine through, making the -0.5 handicap a savvy bet. Expect them to edge past a faltering Troyes side, capitalizing on their defensive lapses.
That is the model's read on today's Serie A card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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