Here are our Serie A picks for Friday 25 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Cagliari Draw No Bet, priced at +134 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Monza prepares to host Cagliari, the contrast in form could tell the tale of this matchup. Monza's recent home struggles are glaring—winless in their last five at home (0-1-4), they’ve averaged a paltry 0.8 goals while conceding a staggering 2.8. Meanwhile, Cagliari arrives buoyed by solid away performances, boasting four wins in their last five overall. Their attacking play has seen them average 1.2 goals while keeping opponents to just 0.6 during this stretch. With Monza’s xG nearly non-existent and a lack of offensive firepower, Cagliari seems poised to capitalize. The historical context also favors them, as they’ve taken two wins from the last five encounters against Monza. In a "Draw No Bet" scenario, backing Cagliari offers a safety net against a potential draw, but the signs point to them claiming all three points.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Napoli prepares to host Frosinone, there’s a compelling case for backing Frosinone with a handicap of 1.25. Despite their recent struggles, Frosinone has shown resilience on the road, collecting two wins in their last five away matches, while only conceding an average of 1.0 goals during that span. Napoli, on the other hand, has been inconsistent at home, managing only three wins from their last five outings, and their defense has looked shaky, allowing an average of 1.8 goals in the same timeframe. Frosinone's attacking unit is capable, averaging 1.4 goals and 16.6 shots per game away. With both teams’ xG metrics hovering close to zero, the matchup could be tighter than expected. If Frosinone can hold Napoli to a draw or keep the scoreline close, the 1.25 handicap offers a promising value play.
Coventry City vs Newcastle United: Under 2.5 Total Goals (+116)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When Coventry City hosts Newcastle United, the stage is set for a tactical battle rather than a scoring frenzy. Both teams have struggled to find the back of the net lately, with Coventry averaging just 0.8 goals over their last five matches, while Newcastle's away form has seen them score a mere 0.8 as well. Despite some high-scoring encounters earlier in the season, recent trends point to a stark shift. Coventry’s last five matches indicate a concerning xG of 0, and their defense has been vulnerable, conceding 2 goals on average. Newcastle, though slightly better offensively, has also faced challenges, with their last away game yielding just 1 goal. With both teams struggling offensively and a low-scoring pattern emerging, betting on under 2.5 goals presents a compelling case. Expect a tightly contested match, likely resulting in less than three goals.
Coventry City vs Newcastle United: Under 2.5 Total Goals (+116)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Coventry City prepares to host Newcastle United, a keen eye on recent performances reveals a compelling case for betting on under 2.5 total goals. Coventry’s recent form has been troubling, averaging a mere 0.8 goals in their last five matches, while their opponents have managed just 1.4 per game. The xG stats further illustrate the struggle; both teams have been unable to generate quality chances, indicated by their lack of significant expected goals in recent outings. Newcastle, despite their attacking prowess, have faltered away from home, scoring just 0.8 goals in their last five travels. The trend points towards a low-scoring affair, especially with both teams focusing on defensive solidity. Given their recent scoring averages and xG figures, expecting a match with more than two goals feels unrealistic. In this matchup, it’s prudent to anticipate a tight contest, making the under 2.5 goals bet an attractive option.
Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama: Botafogo Moneyline (+155)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Botafogo prepares to face Vasco da Gama, the dynamics suggest a favorable scenario for the home side. Historically, Botafogo has dominated this matchup, boasting a 4-1-0 record against Vasco in their last five encounters. Despite a rocky patch at home, with just one win in their last five matches, they’ve consistently created chances—averaging over 21 shots per game lately. On the flip side, Vasco has struggled on the road, averaging just 0.6 goals in their last five away games. Both teams have seen low xG numbers, but Botafogo's attacking efforts seem more promising. With the weight of history behind them and the added motivation of turning their home form around, a Botafogo win feels like the sensible bet here. This is a classic case of potential meeting opportunity, and backing the home team could pay off handsomely.
Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama: Botafogo Moneyline (+155)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Botafogo prepares to face off against Vasco da Gama, the historical context gives the home side a significant edge. Over their last five encounters, Botafogo has triumphed in four, showcasing their dominance in this rivalry. While recent form for both teams has been shaky, Botafogo's home record against Vasco is especially telling, with the hosts netting an average of 0.8 goals at home, despite a lackluster overall scoring trend. Vasco’s struggles on the road compound the challenge, as they’ve only managed to score 0.6 goals per away game recently. With both teams struggling to convert chances—exemplified by their xG stats—this matchup may hinge on Botafogo’s historical strength and home field advantage. The narrative favors Botafogo to reclaim some form, making a bet on their victory a compelling prospect for this clash.
That is the model's read on today's Serie A card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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