Here are our Serie A picks for Friday 11 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 8.5 Total Corners, priced at -104 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Lecce vs Monza: Over 8.5 Total Corners (-104)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Lecce welcomes Monza, the stage is set for a corner-fest. Both teams have been struggling to convert their offensive efforts into goals lately, with Lecce averaging just 1.2 goals and Monza a meager 1 in their last five outings. However, their attacking play suggests plenty of forays into the opposition’s territory. Lecce is averaging nearly 10 shots per game, and Monza isn't far behind with over 9, hinting at sustained pressure. Defensively, both sides have shown vulnerabilities, allowing an average of 2.6 goals per game for Monza and 1.8 for Lecce at home. With Lecce’s corners per game averaging 2.6 and Monza’s at 1.2, the likelihood of exceeding the 8.5 corners line feels strong. Expect a frantic match where both teams push for that elusive breakthrough, leading to a flurry of corners. The stats align; the pitch is set for action!
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Venezia prepares to host Fiorentina, the stage is set for a corner-kick bonanza. Despite Venezia’s struggles lately, averaging a mere 0.8 goals scored across their last five matches, their defensive frailties have led to an average of 2.6 goals conceded. This vulnerability often results in opponents getting plenty of corner opportunities to exploit. Fiorentina, on the other hand, has been pushing for attacking play, averaging 13.8 shots per game, which should translate into numerous set-piece scenarios. With both teams averaging about 13 corners between them in their recent outings, hitting the over on 7.5 corners seems not just feasible but likely. The dynamics of their past encounters also suggest a trend of corner-heavy games, ramping up the excitement for this matchup. Expect action at both ends, and don’t be surprised if the corners tally surpasses the line comfortably.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
When Torino hosts AS Roma, expect a corner frenzy. Torino's matches have been lively, averaging 12.6 total shots at home in their last five outings, which naturally leads to more corner opportunities. Their home games recently have seen a surge in attacking play, yielding an average of 1.4 corners per match. Roma, known for their aggressive forward play, will likely add to this tally, especially considering Torino's defensive style, which often invites pressure. Moreover, with both teams averaging over 11 fouls per game recently, expect the referee to be busy. Each set-piece won is a chance for corners to pile up, pushing us well beyond that 7.5 line. Given the stakes and recent form, betting on over 7.5 corners offers a tantalizing opportunity to capitalize on what promises to be an engaging clash in Serie A.
Como vs Parma: Parma +2 Goal Handicap (-149)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Como prepares to welcome Parma, the contrasting form of these two sides paints a compelling picture for bettors. Como has been riding a wave of success at home, winning four of their last five, with an impressive average of 2.4 goals scored per match. Meanwhile, Parma’s away troubles have been stark; they’ve managed just a meager 0.4 goals per game in their last five outings. What stands out is Como's ability to keep opponents at bay, conceding only 0.8 goals on average recently. In contrast, Parma has struggled to find the net, and their last few outings against Como haven’t been pretty, with their last two meetings yielding no wins. With Como's home advantage and Parma’s lackluster away form, placing a bet on Parma to win the handicap seems a savvy move in this encounter. It’s a chance to capitalize on the momentum Como has built, while Parma seeks to break free from their scoring slump.
Levante vs Barcelona: Levante +2.25 Goal Handicap (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
In this exciting La Liga clash, Levante hosts a Barcelona side that's been prolific on the road, but history has shown that they can stumble against determined opponents like Levante. While the home team’s recent form is a mixed bag, their last five home games have seen them go unbeaten, posting an impressive 5-0-0 record at home in terms of the handicap. Barcelona may boast a formidable four-game winning streak, yet their last encounters with Levante have been far from dominant; they've failed to beat them in four straight outings. With Levante's solid home scoring average climbing to 2.6, they have the firepower to make this competitive. Given the line of 2.25, there’s value in backing Levante to not just avoid defeat but possibly make a statement against their illustrious rivals. Expect a spirited performance that could surprise many.
Levante vs Barcelona: Levante +2.75 Goal Handicap (-175)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
When Levante faces Barcelona, it’s easy to get caught up in the glamour of the Catalan giants, but recent trends tell a different story. Levante’s home form is deceptively resilient; they’ve gone 5-0-0 against the handicap in their last five at home, scoring an average of 2.6 goals while conceding just 0.8. Their defensive solidity, coupled with Barcelona's slight dip in away form, creates an intriguing dynamic. Barcelona has been prolific, averaging 3.6 goals in their last five matches, but Levante poses a unique challenge. Historically, they’ve held their own against Barcelona, drawing four of their last five encounters. With Levante's strong home atmosphere and recent form, betting on Levante to cover the 2.75 handicap feels like a savvy play as they aim to disrupt Barcelona's rhythm. Look for Levante to keep it competitive!
That is the model's read on today's Serie A card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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