Here are our NFL picks for Monday 5 October 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 38.5 Total Points, priced at -108 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Minnesota Vikings play Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Over 38.5 Total Points. It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins: Over 38.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Minnesota Vikings play Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Over 38.5 Total Points. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Washington Commanders play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Washington Commanders +8.5 Point Spread. It was priced at -122 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins: Minnesota Vikings (+100)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Minnesota Vikings play Miami Dolphins in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Minnesota Vikings. That is a Team Total bet. It was priced at +100 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Baltimore Ravens play Tennessee Titans in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Over 42.5 Total Points. It was priced at -105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts: Washington Commanders +7.5 Point Spread (-118)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Washington Commanders play Indianapolis Colts in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Washington Commanders +7.5 Point Spread. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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